IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/5n3y8_v1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Levels and trends in sex ratio at birth in provinces of Pakistan from 1980 to 2020 with scenario-based missing female birth projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chao, Fengqing

    (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)

  • Wazir, Muhammad Asif
  • Ombao, Hernando

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has a strong preference for boys over girls; previous evidence on sex preference is primarily reported at the postnatal stage in which the child mortality rate is higher for females than males. Prenatal sex discrimination in Pakistan, reflected in the inflated sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) has been barely mentioned before this study. OBJECTIVE: We estimate the SRB and missing female births in Pakistan provinces from 1980 to 2020 and identify provinces with imbalanced SRB. We provide scenario-based projections of missing female births in provinces without the existing SRB inflation. METHODS: An extensive SRB database of 832,091 birth records was compiled from all available surveys and censuses. To synthesize different data sources and provide annual estimates and their associated uncertainties of SRBs across provinces, we adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model. RESULTS: As per our model, Balochistan has had SRB imbalance since 1980. The maximum SRB was estimated as 1.121 (95% credible interval [1.066; 1.142]) in 1997. Assuming different start year of SRB inflation process in provinces without existing imbalance, the largest female birth deficit is projected to be 76.2 thousand in Punjab in 2033 when the SRB inflation starts in 2021. CONTRIBUTION: This is the first study on estimating the SRB from 1980 to 2020 and providing scenario-based projections of missing female births up to 2050 by Pakistan province. We identified the Balochistan province with imbalanced SRB and demonstrated important disparities in the occurrence and quantity of female birth deficits before 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao, Fengqing & Wazir, Muhammad Asif & Ombao, Hernando, 2021. "Levels and trends in sex ratio at birth in provinces of Pakistan from 1980 to 2020 with scenario-based missing female birth projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach," SocArXiv 5n3y8_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:5n3y8_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/5n3y8_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/618114f77c342a056320d31a/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/5n3y8_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Géraldine Duthé & France Meslé & Jacques Vallin & Irina Badurashvili & Karine Kuyumjyan, 2012. "High Sex Ratios at Birth in the Caucasus: Modern Technology to Satisfy Old Desires," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(3), pages 487-501, September.
    2. Christophe Z. Guilmoto, 2009. "The Sex Ratio Transition in Asia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 519-549, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentine Becquet & Nicolás Sacco & Ignacio Pardo, 2022. "Disparities in Gender Preference and Fertility: Southeast Asia and Latin America in a Comparative Perspective," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 1295-1323, June.
    2. Ridhi Kashyap & Francisco Villavicencio, 2016. "The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(5), pages 1261-1281, October.
    3. Sara Tafuro, 2020. "An Economic Framework for Persisting Son Preference: Rethinking the Role of Intergenerational Support," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(6), pages 983-1007, December.
    4. Tamar Khitarishvili, 2016. "Gender Dimensions of Inequality in the Countries of Central Asia, South Caucasus, and Western CIS," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_858, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Matthias Schief & Sonja Vogt & Elena Churilova & Charles Efferson, 2023. "Isolating a Culture of Son Preference Among Armenian, Georgian, and Azeri Parents in Soviet-Era Russia," CESifo Working Paper Series 10516, CESifo.
    6. Sam Hyun Yoo & Sarah R. Hayford & Victor Agadjanian, 2017. "Old Habits Die Hard? Lingering Son Preference in an Era of Normalizing Sex Ratios at Birth in South Korea," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 25-54, February.
    7. Orsola Torrisi, 2020. "Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 501-556, September.
    8. Boburmirzo Ibrokhimov & Rashid Javed & Mazhar Mughal, 2023. "Migrants remittances and fertility in the Post-Soviet states," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 574-596, August.
    9. Rashid Javed & Mazhar Mughal, 2019. "Have a Son, Gain a Voice: Son Preference and Female Participation in Household Decision Making," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2526-2548, December.
    10. Sehar Ezdi & Ahmet Melik Baş, 2020. "Gender preferences and fertility: Investigating the case of Turkish immigrants in Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(3), pages 59-96.
    11. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2016. "The Impact of Pre-marital Sex Ratios on Household Saving in Two Asian Countries: The Competitive Saving Motive Revisited," ISER Discussion Paper 0975, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    12. Chris Wilson, 2013. "Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(46), pages 1373-1388.
    13. Scott South & Katherine Trent & Sunita Bose, 2014. "Skewed Sex Ratios and Criminal Victimization in India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1019-1040, June.
    14. Anna‐Maria Aksan, 2022. "Son preference and the demographic transition," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 32-56, February.
    15. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2017. "The impact of sex ratios before marriage on household saving in two Asian countries: The competitive saving motive revisited," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 739-757, September.
    16. Srinivas Goli & Somya Arora & Neha Jain & Sekher T. V., 2024. "Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-28, August.
    17. Seema Jayachandran, 2017. "Fertility Decline and Missing Women," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 118-139, January.
    18. Quanbao Jiang & Marcus Feldman & Shuzhuo Li, 2014. "Marriage Squeeze, Never-Married Proportion, and Mean Age at First Marriage in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(2), pages 189-204, April.
    19. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Simon Chang & Russell Smyth & Trong-Anh Trinh, 2024. "The Long Run Gender Origins of Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Australia's Convict History," Monash Economics Working Papers 2024-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    20. Jacob, Arun, 2016. "Gender Bias in Educational Attainment in India : The Role of Dowry Payments," MPRA Paper 76338, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:5n3y8_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.