IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/5n3y8.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Levels and trends in sex ratio at birth in provinces of Pakistan from 1980 to 2020 with scenario-based missing female birth projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chao, Fengqing

    (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)

  • Wazir, Muhammad Asif
  • Ombao, Hernando

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has a strong preference for boys over girls; previous evidence on sex preference is primarily reported at the postnatal stage in which the child mortality rate is higher for females than males. Prenatal sex discrimination in Pakistan, reflected in the inflated sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) has been barely mentioned before this study. OBJECTIVE: We estimate the SRB and missing female births in Pakistan provinces from 1980 to 2020 and identify provinces with imbalanced SRB. We provide scenario-based projections of missing female births in provinces without the existing SRB inflation. METHODS: An extensive SRB database of 832,091 birth records was compiled from all available surveys and censuses. To synthesize different data sources and provide annual estimates and their associated uncertainties of SRBs across provinces, we adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model. RESULTS: As per our model, Balochistan has had SRB imbalance since 1980. The maximum SRB was estimated as 1.121 (95% credible interval [1.066; 1.142]) in 1997. Assuming different start year of SRB inflation process in provinces without existing imbalance, the largest female birth deficit is projected to be 76.2 thousand in Punjab in 2033 when the SRB inflation starts in 2021. CONTRIBUTION: This is the first study on estimating the SRB from 1980 to 2020 and providing scenario-based projections of missing female births up to 2050 by Pakistan province. We identified the Balochistan province with imbalanced SRB and demonstrated important disparities in the occurrence and quantity of female birth deficits before 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao, Fengqing & Wazir, Muhammad Asif & Ombao, Hernando, 2021. "Levels and trends in sex ratio at birth in provinces of Pakistan from 1980 to 2020 with scenario-based missing female birth projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach," SocArXiv 5n3y8, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:5n3y8
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/5n3y8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/618114f77c342a056320d31a/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/5n3y8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fengqing Chao & Christophe Z Guilmoto & Samir K. C. & Hernando Ombao, 2020. "Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by State and Union Territory in India," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Géraldine Duthé & France Meslé & Jacques Vallin & Irina Badurashvili & Karine Kuyumjyan, 2012. "High Sex Ratios at Birth in the Caucasus: Modern Technology to Satisfy Old Desires," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(3), pages 487-501, September.
    3. M. Khan & Ismail Sirageldin, 1977. "Son preference and the demand for additional children in pakistan," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 14(4), pages 481-495, November.
    4. Christophe Z. Guilmoto & Fengqing Chao & Purushottam M. Kulkarni, 2020. "On the estimation of female births missing due to prenatal sex selection," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(2), pages 283-289, June.
    5. Syed Mubashir Ali & Jafar Hussain, 2001. "Fertility Transition in Pakistan: Evidence from Census," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 537-550.
    6. Fengqing Chao & Patrick Gerland & Alex R. Cook & Leontine Alkema, 2019. "Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(19), pages 9303-9311, May.
    7. Chao, Fengqing & Gerland, Patrick & Cook, Alex R. & Guilmoto, Christophe Z. & Alkema, Leontine, 2021. "Projecting sex imbalances at birth at global, regional, and national levels from 2018 to 2100: scenario-based Bayesian probabilistic projections of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births," SocArXiv zps2m, Center for Open Science.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentine Becquet & Nicolás Sacco & Ignacio Pardo, 2022. "Disparities in Gender Preference and Fertility: Southeast Asia and Latin America in a Comparative Perspective," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 1295-1323, June.
    2. Ewa Cukrowska-Torzewska & Magdalena Grabowska, 2023. "The sex preference for children in Europe: Children’s sex and the probability and timing of births," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(8), pages 203-232.
    3. Goli, Srinivas & Arora, Somya & Jain, Neha & Shekher, T V, 2022. "Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India," MPRA Paper 111905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aradhana Kumari & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Skewed child sex ratios in India: a revisit to geographical patterns and socio-economic correlates," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 45-72, March.
    5. Kumari, Aradhana & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Skewed Child Sex Ratios in India: A Revisit to Geographical Patterns and Socio-economic correlates," SocArXiv vhy86, Center for Open Science.
    6. Fengqing Chao & Christophe Z Guilmoto & Samir K. C. & Hernando Ombao, 2020. "Probabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by State and Union Territory in India," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
    7. Neha Jain, 2022. "Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India," Working Papers 2265, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    8. Goli, Srinivas & Arora, Somya & Jain, Neha & Sekher, TV, 2022. "Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India," SocArXiv 7qxyp, Center for Open Science.
    9. Chao, Fengqing & Gerland, Patrick & Cook, Alex R. & Guilmoto, Christophe Z. & Alkema, Leontine, 2021. "Projecting sex imbalances at birth at global, regional, and national levels from 2018 to 2100: scenario-based Bayesian probabilistic projections of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births," SocArXiv zps2m, Center for Open Science.
    10. Sara Tafuro, 2020. "An Economic Framework for Persisting Son Preference: Rethinking the Role of Intergenerational Support," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(6), pages 983-1007, December.
    11. Tamar Khitarishvili, 2016. "Gender Dimensions of Inequality in the Countries of Central Asia, South Caucasus, and Western CIS," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_858, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Michele Giannola, 2024. "Parental Investments and Intra-household Inequality in Child Human Capital: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(658), pages 671-727.
    13. Javed, Rashid & Mughal, Mazhar, 2020. "Preference for boys and length of birth intervals in Pakistan," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 140-152.
    14. Anisha Sharma & Garima Rastogi, 2020. "Unwanted daughters: The impact of a ban on sex-selection on the educational attainment of women," Working Papers 37, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    15. ABDUL RAZZAQUE RUKANUDDlN, 1982. "Infant-Child Mortality and Son Preference as Factors Influencing Fertility in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 297-328.
    16. Jubril Animashaun & Ada Wossink, 2020. "Patriarchy, Pandemics and the Gendered Resource Curse Thesis: Evidence from Petroleum Geology," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2006, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Aditi Dimri & Véronique Gille & Philipp Ketz, 2021. "Measuring sex-selective abortion: How many women abort?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03495964, HAL.
    18. Herrera-Almanza, Catalina & McCarthey, Aine Seitz, 2023. "Disparities in Spousal Desired Fertility and Land Tenure Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Rural Tanzania," 2024 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2024, San Antonio, Texas 339077, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Nahid Tavassoli, 2021. "The Gender-Biased Fertility Behavior: Evidence from Southeast Asian Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 235-261, July.
    20. Matthias Schief & Sonja Vogt & Elena Churilova & Charles Efferson, 2023. "Isolating a Culture of Son Preference Among Armenian, Georgian, and Azeri Parents in Soviet-Era Russia," CESifo Working Paper Series 10516, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:5n3y8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.