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Facing the future of transit ridership: which riders bought a car; who is planning on riding less?

Author

Listed:
  • Palm, Matthew
  • Allen, Jeff

    (University of Toronto)

  • Zhang, Yixue
  • Aitken, Ignacio Tiznado
  • BATOMEN, BRICE
  • Farber, Steven
  • Widener, Michael

Abstract

Public transit agencies face a transformed landscape of rider demand and political support as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. We explore people’s motivations for returning to or avoiding public transit a year into the pandemic. We draw on a March 2021 follow up survey of over 1,900 people who rode transit regularly prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto and Vancouver, Canada, and who took part in a prior survey on the topic in May, 2020. We model how transit demand has changed due to the pandemic, and investigate how this relates to changes in automobile ownership and its desirability. We find that pre-COVID frequent transit users between the ages of 18-29, a part of the so-called “Gen Z,” and recent immigrants are more attracted to driving due to the pandemic, with the latter group more likely to have actually purchased a vehicle. Getting COVID-19 or living with someone who did is also a strong and positive predictor of buying a car and anticipating less transit use after the pandemic. Our results suggest that COVID-19 heightened the attractiveness of auto ownership among transit riders likely to eventually purchase cars anyways (immigrants, twentysomethings), at least in the North American context. We also conclude that getting COVID-19 or living with someone who did is a significant and positive predictor of having bought a car. Future research should consider how the experiencing of having COVID-19 has transformed some travelers’ views, values, and behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Palm, Matthew & Allen, Jeff & Zhang, Yixue & Aitken, Ignacio Tiznado & BATOMEN, BRICE & Farber, Steven & Widener, Michael, 2022. "Facing the future of transit ridership: which riders bought a car; who is planning on riding less?," OSF Preprints xrk2p, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xrk2p
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/xrk2p
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deborah Salon & Matthew Wigginton Conway & Denise Capasso da Silva & Rishabh Singh Chauhan & Sybil Derrible & Abolfazl (Kouros) Mohammadian & Sara Khoeini & Nathan Parker & Laura Mirtich & Ali Shamshi, 2021. "The potential stickiness of pandemic-induced behavior changes in the United States," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(27), pages 2106499118-, July.
    2. Loa, Patrick & Hossain, Sanjana & Mashrur, Sk. Md. & Liu, Yicong & Wang, Kaili & Ong, Felita & Habib, Khandker Nurul, 2021. "Exploring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on modality profiles for non-mandatory trips in the Greater Toronto Area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 71-85.
    3. Brian Taylor & Eric Morris, 2015. "Public transportation objectives and rider demographics: are transit’s priorities poor public policy?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 347-367, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Nicholas J. & Basu, Rounaq & Smart, Michael J., 2022. "In the driver’s seat: Pathways to automobile ownership for lower-income households in the United States," SocArXiv 7ex6z, Center for Open Science.

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