Estudio de algunos métodos de reservas técnicas en condiciones de incertidumbre para seguros de no vida (Study of some methods of technical reserves under conditions of uncertainty for non-life insurance)

The Solvency margin in an insurance company is of the utmost importance, which is why when analyzing it, both assets and liabilities must be studied. A large part of a company's obligations is to estimate the technical reserves (provisions) for claims related to the non-life line, playing a fundamental role in the company's balance sheet. The main objective of this paper is to present different ways of estimating Incurred But Unreported Claims Reserves (IBNR). The IBNR is treated in two possible ways, firstly, the Pure IBNR appears, which represents the amount to be paid for those claims that have occurred but have not yet been reported to the insurer, and secondly, the IBNER appears, which is the amount of claims that, although they have already been reported to the insurer and have been registered by it, their amount may vary over time as a result of their development over time and even their payment final. One of the methods used when calculating the two types of saved reserves is the ChainLadder method or also known as the triangle method. The method starts from the historical information available regarding the payments made for the claims and these data are presented in the form of triangles, which are called Triangles of Claims Paid. In the exercise presented, probability distributions are incorporated into the reserve calculation for future claims, using the Bootstrap method for estimation and prediction errors.