IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/3mdq4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The changing age-structure of Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 deaths and cases a case study of Paraná, Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Guimaraes, Raquel

    (Federal University of Paraná)

  • Nepomuceno, Marília
  • Nasr, Acácia Maria Lourenço Francisco
  • Garcia,
  • Lopes, Maria Goretti David
  • Junior, Nestor Werner
  • Preto, Carlos Alberto Gebrim

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to explore the demographic evolution of the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 deaths and cases in the state of Paraná, Brazil. We focus on changes in the age-pattern of cases and deaths attributed to the COVID-19. Paraná is an interesting case of study in Brazil due to several aspects. First, it is one of the most developed states of the country. Second, the population growth rate is rapidly approaching zero growth, with an observed average growth rate of 0.78 percent per year in the decade 2010/2020, and of 0.28 percent per year in the period 2030/2040. Third, Parana has an older population age-structure than that of the whole country. Finally, although the state government pushed for earlier Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the pandemic, data shows that they only took effect in the very late stages. Taken together, we claim that these aspects created a very particular setting, in which changes over time in the age-structure of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 could be observed: in the beginning of the pandemic, the age-structure of the deaths was concentrated among the elderly. As the pandemic unfolds, deaths were spreading over younger ages. Finally, we speculate on mechanisms behind the changes in the age structure of the COVID-19 deaths in Paraná.

Suggested Citation

  • Guimaraes, Raquel & Nepomuceno, Marília & Nasr, Acácia Maria Lourenço Francisco & Garcia, & Lopes, Maria Goretti David & Junior, Nestor Werner & Preto, Carlos Alberto Gebrim, 2020. "The changing age-structure of Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 deaths and cases a case study of Paraná, Brazil," OSF Preprints 3mdq4, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3mdq4
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/3mdq4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5f249a175f705a010e61b969/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/3mdq4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marília R. Nepomuceno & Enrique Acosta & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & José Manuel Aburto & Alain Gagnon & Cássio M. Turra, 2020. "Besides population age structure, health and other demographic factors can contribute to understanding the COVID-19 burden," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(25), pages 13881-13883, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jethro Banda & Albert Dube & Sarah Brumfield & Abena Amoah & Amelia Crampin & Georges Reniers & Stephane Helleringer, 2021. "Knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(20), pages 459-480.
    2. Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2021. "Death, demography and the denominator: Age-adjusted Influenza-18 mortality in Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
    4. Demombynes,Gabriel & De Walque,Damien B. C. M. & Gubbins,Paul Michael & Urdinola,Beatriz Piedad & Veillard,Jeremy Henri Maurice, 2021. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves for 2020 Are Flatter in Developing Countries Using Both Official DeathCounts and Excess Deaths," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9807, The World Bank.
    5. Olivier J. Hardy & Dominique Dubourg & Mélanie Bourguignon & Simon Dellicour & Thierry Eggerickx & Marius Gilbert & Jean-Paul Sanderson & Aline Scohy & Eline Vandael & Jean-Michel Decroly, 2021. "A world apart: Levels and determinants of excess mortality due to COVID-19 in care homes: The case of the Belgian region of Wallonia during the spring 2020 wave," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(33), pages 1011-1040.
    6. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert & Luigi Palatella, 2020. "Epidemic response to physical distancing policies and their impact on the outbreak risk," Papers 2007.14620, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    7. David A. Sánchez-Páez, 2022. "Effects of income inequality on COVID-19 infections and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic: Evidence from European countries," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 85-106.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3mdq4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.