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Are the Federal Reserve's Stress Test Results Predictable?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Glasserman

    (Office of Financial Research)

  • Gowtham Tangirala

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Regulatory stress tests have become a key tool for setting bank capital levels. Publicly disclosed results for four rounds of stress tests suggest that as the stress testing process has evolved, its outcomes have become more predictable and therefore arguably less informative. In particular, projected stress losses in the 2013 and 2014 stress tests are nearly perfectly correlated for bank holding companies that participated in both rounds. We also compare projected losses across different scenarios used in the 2014 stress test and find surprisingly high correlations for outcomes grouped by bank or by loan category, which suggests an opportunity to get more information out of the stress tests through greater diversity in the scenarios used. We discuss potential implications of these patterns for the further development and application of stress testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Glasserman & Gowtham Tangirala, 2015. "Are the Federal Reserve's Stress Test Results Predictable?," Working Papers 15-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:15-02
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    File URL: https://financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-2015-02-Are-the-Federal-Reserves-Stress-Test-Results-Predictable.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beverly Hirtle & Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Macroprudential supervision of financial institutions: lessons from the SCAP," Staff Reports 409, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Covas, Francisco B. & Rump, Ben & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 691-713.
    3. Acharya, Viral & Engle, Robert & Pierret, Diane, 2014. "Testing macroprudential stress tests: The risk of regulatory risk weights," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 36-53.
    4. Pavel Kapinos & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2016. "A Top-down Approach to Stress-testing Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 229-264, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernandes, Marcelo & Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo, 2020. "March madness in Wall Street: (What) does the market learn from stress tests?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Lukas Ahnert & Pascal Vogt & Volker Vonhoff & Florian Weigert, 2018. "The Impact of Regulatory Stress Testing on Bank's Equity and CDS Performance," Working Papers on Finance 1814, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    3. Trang H. Dao & Amedeo Pugliese & Joshua Ronen, 2023. "Assessing banks’ resilience: A complementary approach to stress testing using fair values from banks’ financial statements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(7-8), pages 1206-1239, July.
    4. Berrospide, Jose M. & Edge, Rochelle M., 2024. "Bank capital buffers and lending, firm financing and spending: What can we learn from five years of stress test results?✰," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Flannery, Mark & Hirtle, Beverly & Kovner, Anna, 2017. "Evaluating the information in the federal reserve stress tests," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Jondeau, Eric & Khalilzadeh, Amir, 2022. "Predicting the stressed expected loss of large U.S. banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "United States: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Stress Testing-Technical Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/173, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Til Schuermann, 2020. "Capital Adequacy Pre‐ and Postcrisis and the Role of Stress Testing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S1), pages 87-105, October.
    10. Buch, Claudia M. & Vogel, Edgar & Weigert, Benjamin, 2018. "Evaluating macroprudential policies," ESRB Working Paper Series 76, European Systemic Risk Board.

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    Stress Testing;

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