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Trade Effects of Exchange Rates and their Volatility: Chile and New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon

    (AgroCampus Ouest, Rennes)

  • Jane Korinek

    (OECD)

Abstract

Trade deficits and surpluses are sometimes attributed to intentionally low or high exchange rate levels. The impact of exchange rate levels on trade has been much debated but the large body of existing empirical literature does not suggest an unequivocally clear picture of the trade impacts of changes in exchange rates. In addition, much of the evidence on this subject considers currencies of large economies, and overwhelmingly the United States.This study examines the impact of exchange rates and their volatility on trade flows in two small, open economies – Chile and New Zealand – with three major trading partners, in two broadly defined sectors – agriculture on the one hand and manufacturing and mining on the other. It finds that exchange volatility impacts trade flows in the small, open economies more than was found for larger economies. Findings do not clearly indicate the direction of the impact, i.e. whether this volatility increases or decreases trade in all countries and sectors. Exchange rate levels, on the other hand, affect trade in both agriculture and manufacturing and mining sectors although their magnitude differs depending on the trading partner and sector. Moreover, this study indicates that a depreciation in the exchange rates in Chile and New Zealand would not lead to a strong change in their trade balances with three main trading partners across the board.

Suggested Citation

  • Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2012. "Trade Effects of Exchange Rates and their Volatility: Chile and New Zealand," OECD Trade Policy Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:traaab:136-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5k9cvpldq533-en
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pardo Piñashca, Eduardo, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Chilean Copper Exports and Chinese Market Disturbances," MPRA Paper 103878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yangyuyu Luo & Sayeeda Bano, 2020. "Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 605-631, July.
    3. Ronald Miranda & Gabriela Mordecki, 2015. "Real exchange rate volatility impact on exports: A comparative study 1990-2013," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 15-18, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    4. Kam Szeto & David Oxley, 2014. "Examining the Elasticity of New Zealand’s Current Account to the Real Exchange Rate," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/12, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chile; Chilean peso; currency movements; depreciation; exchange hedging; exchange rate appreciation; exchange rates; GARCH volatility; long-run effects; New Zealand; New Zealand dollar; real exchange rates; short-run effects; small open economies; trade; trade deficit; trade in agriculture; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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