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The future of global value chains: Business as usual or “a new normal”?

Author

Listed:
  • Koen De Backer

    (OECD)

  • Dorothee Flaig

    (OECD)

Abstract

The rapid growth of global value chains (GVCs) has been an important driver of globalisation during the past decades. But the international fragmentation of production appears to have lost momentum and GVCs seem to have stalled in recent years. The world economy is facing a number of structural shifts that may dramatically change the outlook of GVCs in the coming years. The empirical evidence evaluating the potential impact of these shifts however largely lags behind, which makes these discussions somewhat speculative. By describing how these shifts will likely evolve over the next 10 to 15 years and calculating their effects on global production and trade, the scenarios in this paper offers new - empirically funded - insights on the future of GVCs.

Suggested Citation

  • Koen De Backer & Dorothee Flaig, 2017. "The future of global value chains: Business as usual or “a new normal”?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers 41, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stiaac:41-en
    DOI: 10.1787/d8da8760-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcato, Marilia Bassetti & Dweck, Esther & Montanha, Rafael, 2022. "The densification of Chinese production chains in the context of vertically fragmented production," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 75-89.
    2. Escaith, Hubert, 2018. "Mapping the UK domestic and global value chains from a Brexit perspective," MPRA Paper 87824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Byeongho Lim & Jeongho Yoo & Kyoungseo Hong & Inkyo Cheong, 2021. "Impacts of Reverse Global Value Chain (GVC) Factors on Global Trade and Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    4. McWilliam, Sarah E. & Kim, Jung Kwan & Mudambi, Ram & Nielsen, Bo Bernhard, 2020. "Global value chain governance: Intersections with international business," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    5. Filippo Bontadini & Rinaldo Evangelista & Valentina Meliciani & Maria Savona, 2019. "Integration in Global Value Chains and Employment in Europe," SPRU Working Paper Series 2019-16, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Escaith, Hubert, 2022. "From Hyper-globalization to Global Value Chains Decoupling: Withering Global Trade Governance?," MPRA Paper 115267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Blázquez, Leticia & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & González-Díaz, Belén, 2023. "Hubs of embodied business services in a GVC world," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 28-43.
    8. Christian Estmann & Bjørn Bo Sørensen & Benno Ndulu & John Rand, 2022. "Merchandise export diversification strategy for Tanzania: Promoting inclusive growth, economic complexity and structural change," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2649-2695, August.
    9. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Stefan Ederer & Matthias Firgo & Klaus Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Mathias Kirchner & Angela Köppl & Agnes Kügler & Christine Mayrhu, 2018. "Politischer Handlungsspielraum zur optimalen Nutzung der Vorteile der Digitalisierung für Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Wohlstand," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61256, April.
    10. Dachs, Bernhard & Kinkel, Steffen & Jäger, Angela, 2019. "Bringing it all back home? Backshoring of manufacturing activities and the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1-1.
    11. Dweck, Esther & Marcato, Marilia Bassetti & Torracca, Julia & Miguez, Thiago, 2022. "COVID-19 and the Brazilian manufacturing sector: Roads to reindustrialization within societal purposes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 278-293.
    12. Elena Spasova & Eduard Marinov, 2021. "Global value chains and the changing nature of international specialization," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 3-28,29-52.
    13. Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Matthias Firgo & Klaus Friesenbichler & Philipp Piribauer, 2018. "Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung auf die Entwicklung von Wirtschaftsräumen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(12), pages 881-890, December.
    14. Karishma Banga, 2022. "Digital Technologies and Product Upgrading in Global Value Chains: Empirical Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 77-102, February.

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