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Health Spending Projections to 2030: New results based on a revised OECD methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Lorenzoni

    (OECD)

  • Alberto Marino

    (OECD)

  • David Morgan

    (OECD)

  • Chris James

    (OECD)

Abstract

To gain a better understanding of the financial sustainability of health systems, the OECD has produced a new set of health spending projections up to 2030 for all its member countries. Estimates are produced across a range of policy situations. Policy situations analysed include a “base” scenario – estimates of health spending growth in the absence of major policy changes – and a number of alternative scenarios that model the effect on health spending of policies that increase productivity or contribute to better lifestyles; or conversely, ineffective policies that contribute to additional cost pressures on health systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Lorenzoni & Alberto Marino & David Morgan & Chris James, 2019. "Health Spending Projections to 2030: New results based on a revised OECD methodology," OECD Health Working Papers 110, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaad:110-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5667f23d-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Himmler, Sebastian & Jonker, Marcel & van Krugten, Frédérique & Hackert, Mariska & van Exel, Job & Brouwer, Werner, 2022. "Estimating an anchored utility tariff for the well-being of older people measure (WOOP) for the Netherlands," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    2. Mariotti, Giuliano & Siciliani, Luigi & Rebba, Vincenzo & Coretti, Silvia & Gentilini, Maria, 2022. "Consensus among clinicians on referrals’ priority and use of digital decision-making support systems," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(9), pages 906-914.
    3. Pilar Gracia-de-Rentería & Hugo Ferrer-Pérez & Ana Isabel Sanjuán & George Philippidis, 2023. "Live and let live: understanding the temporal drivers and spillovers of life expectancy in Europe for public planning," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(3), pages 335-347, April.
    4. Stephen Rocks & Daniela Berntson & Alejandro Gil-Salmerón & Mudathira Kadu & Nieves Ehrenberg & Viktoria Stein & Apostolos Tsiachristas, 2020. "Cost and effects of integrated care: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(8), pages 1211-1221, November.
    5. Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Health shocks and housing downsizing: How persistent is ‘ageing in place’?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 490-508.
    6. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & García-Rodríguez, Abián & Hill, Leonie, 2022. "Projections of workforce requirements for public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2019–2035: a regional analysis based on the hippocrates model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS147.
    7. Hrvoje Simovic & Maja Mihelja Zaja & Marko Primorac, 2021. "Fiscal (un)sustainability of the Croatian healthcare system: additional impact of the COVID-19 crisis," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 495-515.
    8. Oscar Iván Avila-Montealegre & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2024. "Macroeconomic Effects of Healthcare Financing in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1278, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Conor Keegan & Aoife Brick & Edward Henry & Adele Bergin, 2022. "Projected private hospital expenditure in Ireland, 2018–2035: What role for demographics, cost, and Sláintecare?," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 999-1017, March.
    10. Kettlewell, Nathan & Zhang, Yuting, 2024. "Financial incentives and private health insurance demand on the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Cylus, Jonathan & Williams, Gemma & Carrino, Ludovico & Roubal, Tomas & Barber, Sarah, 2022. "Population ageing and health financing: A method for forecasting two sides of the same coin," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(12), pages 1226-1232.
    12. Bharathi M. Purohit & O. P. Kharbanda & Harsh Priya, 2022. "Universal oral health coverage – Perspectives from a developing country," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 610-618, March.
    13. Kettlewell, Nathan & Zhang, Yuting, 2023. "Financial Incentives and Private Health Insurance Demand on the Extensive and Intensive Margins," IZA Discussion Papers 16248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Kaan Celebi & Jochen Hartwig & Anna Pauliina Sandqvist, 2024. "Baumol's Cost Disease in Acute vs. Long-term Care - Do the Differences Loom Large?," Chemnitz Economic Papers 062, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
    15. Domenico Lisi & Giacomo Pignataro, 2021. "A note on the trade‐off between waiting times and quality in a constrained hospital market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 180-185, January.
    16. Christine Lewis & Patrice Ollivaud, 2020. "Policies for Switzerland’s ageing society," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1600, OECD Publishing.
    17. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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