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Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Filippucci
  • Peter Gal
  • Matthias Schief

Abstract

The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon. It builds a novel micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates, relying on a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages to aggregate the effects. Its main estimates for annual aggregate total-factor productivity growth due to AI range between 0.25-0.6 percentage points (0.4-0.9 pp. for labour productivity). The paper discusses the role of various channels in shaping these macro-level gains and highlights several policy levers to support AI's growth-enhancing effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Filippucci & Peter Gal & Matthias Schief, 2024. "Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence," OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers 29, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:comaaa:29-en
    DOI: 10.1787/b524a072-en
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial Intelligence; Productivity; Technology adoption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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