The Implications of Agricultural Trade and Market Developments for Food Security

Reducing hunger and undernourishment is a global priority and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have the ambitious target of eradicating hunger entirely by 2030. Using the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook to 2024, this paper provides projections on the availability of calories at the national level, for the number of persons undernourished, and for the proportion of undernourishment (PoU) that are consistent with the market projections of the Outlook’s baseline. It also considers the impact on undernourishment of four alternative scenarios: faster income growth relative to the baseline in developing countries; stronger growth in agricultural productivity; a combination of a faster income growth with a stronger productivity growth; and finally a more equitable access to available food supplies. Under the baseline, the global PoU is projected to fall from 11% to 8% over ten years, with Latin America as a whole dipping under the 5% threshold at which the FAO considers hunger to be effectively eradicated. The PoU falls from 12% to 8% in Asia and the Pacific and from 23% to 19% in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global total of undernourished people declines from 788 million to 636 million. The number of undernourished individuals fall the most in Asia. Higher income growth or more productive agriculture removes more people from the ranks of the undernourished, but in most cases, more equitable access to food leads to the biggest reductions. The analysis confirms that it is not lack of available food that is the fundamental problem, but rather effective access to that food. Trade plays an increasing role in ensuring national food availability for many countries.