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Emissions de Dioxyde de Carbone et Croissance Economique au Maroc : Une Analyse de la Courbe Environnementale de Kuznets

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  • Rim Berahab

Abstract

Dans un contexte mondial de plus en plus préoccupé par les aléas climatiques, comprendre l’impact de la croissance économique sur l’environnement devient crucial, notamment pour les pays en voie de développement. Ce papier aborde cette problématique sous le prisme des émissions de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) et examine comment la croissance économique se répercute sur l’environnement. L’objectif de cette étude est de tester la validité de la courbe environnementale de Kuznets (CEK) pour le cas du Maroc. Pour cela, la méthode d’ARDL (Auto regressive distributed lag), dite aussi black box, est utilisée. Ce papier présente dans une première partie un bref état des lieux de la demande énergétique au Maroc. Il met l’accent ensuite sur l’évolution des émissions de CO2 par secteur et type de carburant et donne un aperçu de la stratégie énergétique adoptée par le Royaume. Dans une seconde partie, à l’aide d’outils économétriques, il examine la relation de long terme entre les émissions de CO2 et le Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) réel, en introduisant d’autres variables explicatives telles que la consommation d’énergie et le commerce international pour la période 1971-2014. Les résultats de l’analyse économétrique confirment l’existence d’une relation de long terme positive entre les émissions de CO2 et le PIB réel et montrent que le sens de cette relation va de la croissance économique vers les émissions de CO2 d’après les tests de causalité de Granger. Autrement dit, pour un pays en développement comme le Maroc, c’est la croissance économique qui détermine le niveau des émissions et non l’inverse. Ce qui implique qu’une politique énergétique en faveur de l’environnement peut être mise en place sans risquer d’avoir des répercussions négatives sur la croissance économique. Par ailleurs, les résultats de la régression ARDL valident l’hypothèse de CEK : dans une première phase, la croissance économique entraîne un niveau plus élevé d’émissions de CO2, cependant, arrivé à un seuil donné (point d’inflexion), ces émissions diminuent.

Suggested Citation

  • Rim Berahab, 2017. "Emissions de Dioxyde de Carbone et Croissance Economique au Maroc : Une Analyse de la Courbe Environnementale de Kuznets," Research papers & Policy papers on Commodities & Energy 1719, Policy Center for the New South.
    • Handle: RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:rp-17-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shafik, Nemat & Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, 1992. "Economic growth and environmental quality : time series and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 904, The World Bank.
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