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Les cycles économiques ont-ils un effet asymétrique sur le chômage et la pauvreté ? Cas du Maroc

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  • Hamza Saoudi

Abstract

Ce papier évalue les effets asymétriques des cycles économiques sur le chômage et la pauvreté au Maroc, à travers un modèle VAR estimé sur des données trimestrielles allant de 2003 à 2012. Ce modèle inclut les composantes cycliques de quatre variables à savoir : l’output-gap, le salaire minimum réel, le taux de chômage et le taux de pauvreté. Afin de tester la robustesse des résultats, deux versions du modèle VAR ont été estimées, en utilisant les composantes cycliques calculées selon deux filtres statistiques, Hodrick-Prescott (1997) et Hamilton (2017). Les résultats des deux versions du modèle montrent que le chômage au Maroc réagit asymétriquement aux chocs de production, en présentant moins de sensibilité quand l’économie est située au départ dans la phase descendante du cycle (périodes ou la production globale est inférieure à la production potentielle). Cependant, les cycles d’activités ne semblent pas avoir d’effet statistiquement significatif sur la pauvreté au Maroc.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamza Saoudi, 2019. "Les cycles économiques ont-ils un effet asymétrique sur le chômage et la pauvreté ? Cas du Maroc," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 1903, Policy Center for the New South.
    • Handle: RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rpnn_27
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