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Ciblage de l’inflation et réduction de la dette publique pour les pays émergents : une approche par effet de traitement

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  • Mahmoud Arbouch

Abstract

L’objectif de ce papier est d’essayer d’examiner si l’implémentation du cadre de ciblage de l’inflation par la banque centrale, permet une réduction de la dette publique dans les pays émergents, à travers l'effet disciplinant du ciblage sur la conduite de la politique budgétaire en général. Pour ce faire, la méthode d’évaluation d’impact utilisée est l’appariement par score de propension ou Propensity Score Matching (PSM), qui permet l’évaluation de l’effet de traitement du ciblage d’inflation sur la discipline budgétaire, en termes de réduction de la dette publique, dans les pays émergents ayant adopté ce cadre de politique monétaire. L’échantillon d’analyse comprend 40 pays émergents, dont 19 sont cibleurs de l’inflation et 21 non-cibleurs. Les résultats empiriques montrent qu’en moyenne, l’adoption du ciblage de l’inflation a eu un effet significatif sur la réduction de la dette publique.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmoud Arbouch, 2022. "Ciblage de l’inflation et réduction de la dette publique pour les pays émergents : une approche par effet de traitement," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 2261, Policy Center for the New South.
    • Handle: RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:rp_13-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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