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Exchange rate fluctuations and the margins of exports

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Fabling
  • Lynda Sanderson

    (The Treasury)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and New Zealand export performance. To isolate the impact of the exchange rate, as opposed to contemporaneous (and related) fluctuations in New Zealand’s economic performance or overseas market characteristics, we focus on bilateral export relationships at the firm level and control for both time-invariant country characteristics and changes in aggregate economic conditions. We examine two key margins of export adjustment – the probability of exporting (the extensive margin) and the average value of exports per firm (the intensive margin) – and distinguish between impacts on market incumbents and new or potential entrants. Finally, we specifically take account of the potential for interaction between the level and volatility of the exchange rate to affect exporting, as implied by theories of exchange rate hysteresis.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2015. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the margins of exports," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:15/08
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2015-06/twp15-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doireann Fitzgerald & Stefanie Haller, 2014. "Exporters and Shocks: Dissecting the International Elasticity Puzzle," Working Papers 201408, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    3. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    4. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    5. Richard Fabling & Arthur Grimes, 2015. "Over the Hedge: Do Exporters Practice Selective Hedging?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 321-338, April.
    6. Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, September.
    7. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    8. Richard Fabling, 2009. "A Rough Guide to New Zealand's Longitudinal Business Database," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-103, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    10. Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2015. "Export Performance, Invoice Currency and Heterogeneous Exchange Rate Pass-through," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 315-339, February.
    11. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    12. Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and aggregate merchandise trade growth in New Zealand," Journal of International Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 182-199, June.
    13. Greenaway, David & Kneller, Richard, 2010. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 734-753.
    14. Berthou, Antoine, 2008. "An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports," Working Paper Series 920, European Central Bank.
    15. Christian Broda & John Romalis, 2011. "Identifying the Relationship Between Trade and Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, pages 79-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    2. Paul Conway, 2016. "Achieving New Zealand's productivity potential," Working Papers 2016/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    3. Lynda Sanderson, 2016. "Barriers to Generating International Income: Evidence from the Business Operations Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 16/04, New Zealand Treasury.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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