IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzt/nztwps/13-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing

Author

Listed:
  • Omar A Aziz
  • Christopher Ball
  • John Creedy
  • Jesse Eedrah

    (The Treasury)

Abstract

This paper examines the potential distributional impacts of demographic change, particularly population ageing, and changes to labour force participation that are projected to arise over the next 50 years. The approach involves calibration weighting of the Treasury’s microsimulation model, Taxwell, based on the New Zealand Household Economic Survey. The weights are adjusted for each projection year to ensure that a range of population aggregates (by age and gender) match the projected values provided by Statistics New Zealand. Measures of income inequality and poverty, along with the incidence of income tax, Goods and Services Tax and a number of components of government spending (namely health and education) across age groups, are obtained. The results suggest that population ageing and expected changes in labour force participation, in isolation, do not have a significant impact on population-level measures of income inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar A Aziz & Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/13, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2013-07/twp13-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Creedy & Jamas Enright & Norman Gemmell & Angela Mellish, 2010. "Population ageing and taxation in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 137-158.
    2. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    3. ROSS GUEST & IAN McDONALD, 1999. "The Effect Of Population Ageing On The Distribution Of Taxable Incomes Of Individuals In Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 18(3), pages 34-48, September.
    4. Shelley A. Phipps & Peter S. Burton, 1995. "Sharing within Families: Implications for the Measurement of Poverty among Individuals in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 177-204, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah, 2014. "The Role of Value Judgements in Measuring Inequality," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/13, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah, 2016. "Income redistribution and changes in inequality in New Zealand from 2007 to 2011: Alternative distributions and value judgements," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 129-152, August.
    4. Penny Mok & Joseph Mercante, 2014. "Working for Families changes: The effect on labour supply in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/18, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Nolan, Matt, 2018. "Did tax-transfer policy change New Zealand disposable income inequality between 1988 and 2013?," Working Paper Series 7661, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    6. Nolan, Matt, 2018. "Did tax-transfer policy change New Zealand disposable income inequality between 1988 and 2013?," Working Paper Series 20842, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. Amer Ahmed & Maurizio Bussolo & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2020. "Global Inequality in a more educated world," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(4), pages 585-616, December.
    8. Aziz, Omar & Gemmell, Norman & Laws, Athene, 2013. "The Distribution of Income and Fiscal Incidence by Age and Gender: Some Evidence from New Zealand," Working Paper Series 2852, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Susanne Elsas, 2016. "Income Sharing within Households: Evidence from Data on Financial Satisfaction," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Tania Burchardt & Eleni Karagiannaki, 2022. "Living arrangements, intra-household inequality and children’s deprivation: Evidence from EU-SILC," CASE Papers /227, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    3. Gillian Hewitson, 2001. "A Survey of Feminist Economics," Working Papers 2001.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    4. Hielke BUDDELMEYER & Nicolas HÉRAULT & Guyonne KALB & Mark VAN ZIJLL DE JONG, 2009. "Linking a Dynamic CGE Model and a Microsimulation Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," EcoMod2009 21500020, EcoMod.
    5. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2020. "The Redistributive Effects of a Minimum Wage Increase in New Zealand: A Microsimulation Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538, December.
    6. Chiuri, Maria Concetta, 2000. "Individual decisions and household demand for consumption and leisure," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 277-324, September.
    7. Sunil Kumar & Renuka Mahadevan, 2008. "Construction of An Adult Equivalence Index to Measure Intra-household Inequality and Poverty: Case Study," Discussion Papers Series 363, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. Omar Aziz & Norman Gemmell & Athene Laws, 2016. "Income and Fiscal Incidence by Age and Gender: Some Evidence from New Zealand," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 534-558, September.
    9. Wen-Hao Chen & Miles Corak, 2008. "Child poverty and changes in child poverty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(3), pages 537-553, August.
    10. Gerlinde Verbist & Ron Diris & Frank Vandenbroucke, 2018. "Solidarity between generations in extended families. Direction, size and intensity," Working Papers 1816, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    11. Esther Yin-Nei Cho, 2018. "Links between Poverty and Children’s Subjective Wellbeing: Examining the Mediating and Moderating Role of Relationships," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 11(2), pages 585-607, April.
    12. Miles Corak & Michael Fertig & Marcus Tamm, 2008. "A Portrait Of Child Poverty In Germany," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(4), pages 547-571, December.
    13. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling With the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator(MITTS) : Uses and Extensions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 932, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2008. "China's economic growth and its real exchange rate," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 123-145.
    15. Vandyck, Toon & Van Regemorter, Denise, 2014. "Distributional and regional economic impact of energy taxes in Belgium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 190-203.
    16. Irène Berthonnet, 2023. "Where Exactly Does the Sexist Bias in the Official Measurement of Monetary Poverty in Europe Come From?," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 132-146, March.
    17. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Nicolas Hérault & Guyonne Kalb & Mark van Zijll de Jong, 2012. "Linking a Microsimulation Model to a Dynamic CGE Model: Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Income Distribution in Australia," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(2), pages 40-58.
    18. Bautista Lacambra, Sergio, 2020. "Household labor supply: Collective results for certain developed countries," MPRA Paper 101514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Rae, Allan & Strutt, Anna & Cassells, Sue, 2008. "Towards Analysis of Sustainable Export-Oriented Agriculture: Exploring Land-use Data and CGE Modelling in New Zealand," Conference papers 331734, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Prammer, Doris, 2019. "How does population ageing impact on personal income taxes and social security contributions?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; population ageing; survey calibration; poverty; fiscal incidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CSS I&T Web & Publishing, The Treasury (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tregvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.