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Extracting market expectations from option prices: an application to over-the-counter New Zealand dollar options

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Abstract

What are the odds of a large shift in the exchange rate? Is a large depreciation more likely than a large appreciation? This paper uses over-the-counter New Zealand dollar/US dollar option prices to quantify market expectations of exchange rate uncertainty through measures based on risk-neutral probability distribution functions. Results suggest that the estimated probability distributions can provide important insights into market perceptions about exchange rate risk in the future. Econometric evidence indicates that the higher moments calculated from risk-neutral probability density functions can be used to explain the dynamic behaviour of the forward bias measured in the New Zealand dollar/US dollar exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Aron Gereben, 2002. "Extracting market expectations from option prices: an application to over-the-counter New Zealand dollar options," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2002/04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lannoo, Karel & Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2020. "Derivatives in Sustainable Finance," ECMI Papers 29791, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Değerli, Ahmet & Fendoğlu, Salih, 2015. "Reserve option mechanism as a stabilizing policy tool: Evidence from exchange rate expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 166-179.
    3. Datta, Deepa Dhume & Londono, Juan M. & Ross, Landon J., 2017. "Generating options-implied probability densities to understand oil market events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 440-457.
    4. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Aron Gereben, 2002. "Extracting market expectations from option prices?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, March.
    6. Michelle Lewis, 2012. "Market Perceptions of Exchange Rate Risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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