IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbans/2019-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The flattening of the Phillips curve: Rounding up the suspects

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The Phillips curve embodies the relationship between measures of inflation and economic activity. This correlation has declined over time in New Zealand and other developed economies, a phenomenon commonly known as the flattening of the Phillips curve. This paper provides a framework to think about the potential causes of the waning correlation between inflation and activity in New Zealand. Does this declining correlation imply that prices have become less volatile due to price-setting by firms becoming less sensitive to demand pressures? Has demand become less volatile due to households becoming less responsive to the interest rate? Have the random disturbances influencing aggregate supply and demand changed? We first run computational experiments in a simple model of demand and supply to demonstrate how the declining correlations observed in the data can be generated by two causal mechanisms: changes in the behaviour of economic actors or changes in the composition of random business cycle disturbances hitting the economy. The key message of the experiment is that if disturbances influencing the supply side of the economy are more potent than those affecting the demand side, the correlation between inflation and activity can diminish. In the next step, we estimate an extended version of the model on New Zealand data to point out potential reasons for the flattening of the Phillips curve over the inflation targeting era. Our methodology does not isolate any particular feature as a single dominant driver of the diminishing correlations observed in the data. Instead, we identify a number of potential mechanisms that contribute to the flattening of the Phillips curve. Our results suggest that changes in the structure of the economy have been fairly mild. However, business cycle disturbances on the supply side have been become much more variable than those influencing the demand side. These supply-side disturbances are very influential in driving the waning correlation between inflation and activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Punnoose Jacob & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder, 2019. "The flattening of the Phillips curve: Rounding up the suspects," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2019/06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2019/an2019-06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John M. Roberts, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    2. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Nicholas Sander & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "A structural model for policy analysis and forecasting: NZSIM," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Jacob, Punnoose & Munro, Anella, 2018. "A prudential stable funding requirement and monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 89-106.
    4. Doyle, Matthew & Beaudry, Paul, 2000. "What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10286, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    6. Edward P. Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10612.
    7. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications Second edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10495.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "The Role of Global and Domestic Shocks for Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Asia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1181-1208, October.
    2. Carlos Medel, 2021. "Forecasting Brazilian Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Predictive Role of Trading Partners," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 900, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Harsha Paranavithana & Leandro Magnusson & Rod Tyers, 2021. "Monetary Policy Regimes in Small Open Economies: The Case of Sri Lanka," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 434-462, December.
    4. Aquino, Juan, 2019. "The Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Phillips Curve: Specification, Structural Breaks and Robustness," Working Papers 2019-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suleyman Hilmi Kal & Ferhat Arslaner & Nuran Arslaner, 2015. "Sources of Asymmetry and Non-linearity in Pass-Through of Exchange Rate and Import Price to Consumer Price Inflation for the Turkish Economy during Inflation Targeting Regime," Working Papers 1530, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "Flattening of the Phillips curve and the role of the oil price: An unobserved component model for the USA and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 259-262.
    3. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Nonlinearity of the inflation-output trade-off and time-varying price rigidity," Working Papers 2013-02, CEPII research center.
    4. Yunjong Eo & Denny Lie, 2020. "The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(8), pages 2007-2052, December.
    5. Jacob Punnoose & Amber Wadsworth, 2018. "Estimated policy rules for different monetary regimes: Flexible inflation targeting versus a dual mandate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Michelle Lewis & Dr John McDermott & Adam Richardson, 2016. "Inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-12, March.
    7. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Forecast heuristics, consumer expectations, and New-Keynesian macroeconomics: A Horse race," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 493-511.
    8. Saglio, Sophie & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Introducing price-setting behaviour in the Phillips Curve: the role of nonlinearities," MPRA Paper 46646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jacob, Punnoose & Munro, Anella, 2018. "A prudential stable funding requirement and monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 89-106.
    10. Troy Davig, 2016. "Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 233-246, February.
    11. Choi, Yoonseok & Kim, Sunghyun, 2016. "Testing an alternative price-setting behavior in the new Keynesian Phillips curve: Extrapolative price-setting mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 253-265.
    12. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2020. "Trade Exposure and the Evolution of Inflation Dynamics," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 6, pages 173-226, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Sophie Saglio, 2014. "Is Globalization Weakening the Inflation–Output Relationship?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 744-758, September.
    14. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    15. Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017. "Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
    16. Choi, Yoonseok, 2021. "Inflation dynamics, the role of inflation at different horizons and inflation uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 649-662.
    17. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Lin, 2022. "Female small business owners in China: Discouraged, not discriminated," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2020. "Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 503, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    19. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
    20. Berger, Tino & Kempa, Bernd, 2014. "Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 203-214.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2019/06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.