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How has the LVR restriction affected the housing market: a counterfactual analysis

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Abstract

This paper estimates a counterfactual scenario of what might have happened to housing market indicators since late 2013 if the LVR restriction had not been implemented. House prices and credit growth have been weaker than suggested by that counterfactual model.

Suggested Citation

  • Gael Price, 2014. "How has the LVR restriction affected the housing market: a counterfactual analysis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2014/03
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2014/an2014-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris Bloor & Chris McDonald, 2013. "Estimating the impacts of restrictions on high LVR lending," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Laliotis & Alejandro Buesa & Miha Leber & Javier Población, 2020. "An agent-based model for the assessment of LTV caps," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1721-1748, October.
    2. Kukk, Merike & Levenko, Natalia, 2024. "Measuring the effects of borrower-based policies on new housing loans," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 666-684.
    3. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    4. Gross, Marco & Población, Javier, 2017. "Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 510-528.
    5. Anne-Marie Brook, 2014. "Options to Narrow New Zealand’s Saving – Investment Imbalance," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/17, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    7. Buesa, Alejandro & De Quinto, Alicia & Población, Javier, 2022. "Risky mortgages, credit shocks and cross-border spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 717-733.
    8. David Hargreaves, 2016. "The macroprudential policy framework in New Zealand," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 141-146, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Andrés Alegría & Rodrigo Alfaro & Felipe Córdova, 2017. "The impact of warnings published in a financial stability report on loan-to value ratios," BIS Working Papers 633, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Abreu, Daniel & Félix, Sónia & Oliveira, Vitor & Silva, Fátima, 2024. "The impact of a macroprudential borrower-based measure on households’ leverage and housing choices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Péter Fáykiss, Márton Nagy and Anikó Szombati, 2017. "Regionally-differentiated debt cap rules: a Hungarian perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 153-178, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Cussen, Mary & O'Brien, Martin & Onorante, Luca & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2015. "Assessing the impact of macroprudential measures," Economic Letters 03/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Alegría, Andrés & Alfaro, Rodrigo & Córdova, Felipe, 2021. "The effect of warnings published in a financial stability report on loan-to-value ratios," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    14. Péter Fáykiss & Alexandr Palicz & János Szakács & Márton Zsigó, 2018. "Experiences of Debt Cap Regulations in Hungarian Retail Lending," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(1), pages 34-61.
    15. William Gatt, 2024. "Loan‐to‐value limits as a macroprudential policy tool: Developments in theory and practice," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 232-267, February.
    16. Chris Bloor & Bruce Lu, 2019. "Have the LVR restrictions improved the resilience of the banking system?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Daniel Abreu, 2021. "Curb your enthusiasm: the aggregate short-run effects of a borrower-based measure," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Martin Wong, 2017. "Revisiting the Wealth Effect on Consumption in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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