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Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period

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Estimates of neutral interest rates play a useful role in thinking about monetary policy. This note explores the concept of a neutral interest rate and provides some simple empirical illustrations of the trend decline in neutral rates, here and abroad, over the last couple of decades.

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  • Willy Chetwin & Amy Wood, 2013. "Neutral interest rates in the post-crisis period," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2013/07
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    1. Willy Chetwin & Michael Reddell, 2012. "Monetary policy in the last business cycle: some perspectives," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 3-14, June.
    2. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
    3. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 239-262, April.
    4. Gemma Mabin, 2011. "New Zealand's Exchange Rate Cycles: Impacts and Policy," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
    6. Michael Kirker, 2008. "Does natural rate variation matter? Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/17, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Key Unobservables: Evidence from Large Industrial and Selected Inflation-Targeting Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 9, pages 285-370, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Computing Long-Term Market Inflation Expectations for Countries without Inflation Expectation Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(3), pages 23-48, September.
    2. Harendra Behera & Sitikantha Pattanaik & Rajesh Kavediya, 2015. "Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers id:7654, eSocialSciences.
    3. Luis Ceballos & Jorge A. Fornero & Andrés Gatty, 2017. "Nuevas estimaciones de la tasa real neutral de Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 120-143, December.

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