IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbans/2012-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

House price expectations of households: A preliminary analysis of new survey data

Author

Listed:

Abstract

People's expectations of future house prices appear to be an important influence on house prices and the volume of house sales (Wheaton 1990; Berkovec and Goodman 1996). For example, Case and Shiller (2006) argue that expectations played a role in producing California's house price boom in the late 1980s. If house price expectations matter, then how people form those expectations, and how expectations respond to different shocks (for example, an unexpected increase in population) also matters. The Reserve Bank has often referred to the importance of house price expectations but unlike many other variables we have had little detailed data on these expectations for analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Howard & Özer Karagedikli, 2012. "House price expectations of households: A preliminary analysis of new survey data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2012/01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2012/AN2012-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-1292, December.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    3. Emmanuel De Veirman & Michael Reddell, 2011. "Towards understanding what and when households spent," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 1-11, December.
    4. James A. Berkovec & John L. Goodman, 1996. "Turnover as a Measure of Demand for Existing Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 421-440, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-54.
    2. Arslan, Yavuz & Kanık, Birol & Köksal, Bülent, 2015. "Anticipated vs. unanticipated house price movements and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 121-129.
    3. Genesove, David & Hansen, James, 2016. "The Role of Auctions and Negotiation in Housing Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 11392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. de Wit, Erik R. & Englund, Peter & Francke, Marc K., 2013. "Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 220-241.
    6. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    7. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    8. Stig Vinther Møller & Thomas Pedersen & Erik Christian Montes Schütte & Allan Timmermann, 2024. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 415-438, January.
    9. Marlene Kionka & Martin Odening & Jana Plogmann & Matthias Ritter, 2021. "Measuring liquidity in agricultural land markets," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 82(4), pages 690-713, September.
    10. Hallberg, Daniel & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Turnover and Price in the Housing Market: Causation, Association or Independence?," Working Paper Series 2002:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)," Discussion Papers in Economics 494, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Chien-Wen Peng & I-Chun Tsai & Wey-Wen Wu, 2011. "Price and Volume Relationship under Housing Presale System," ERES eres2011_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    13. Akkoyun, H. Cagri & Arslan, Yavuz & Kanik, Birol, 2013. "Housing prices and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-134.
    14. Gao Lu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2015. "Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    15. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
    16. Fowler, Stuart J. & Fowler, Jennifer J. & Seagraves, Philip A. & Beauchamp, Charles F., 2018. "A fundamentalist theory of real estate market outcomes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 295-305.
    17. Yong Tu & Seow Ong & Ying Han, 2009. "Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 254-274, April.
    18. Jian Yang & Meng Tong & Ziliang Yu, 2023. "Can volume be more informative than prices? Evidence from Chinese housing markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 633-672, August.
    19. Lamorgese, Andrea R. & Pellegrino, Dario, 2022. "Loss aversion in housing appraisal: Evidence from Italian homeowners," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Andrea Lamorgese & Dario Pellegrino, 2019. "Loss aversion in housing price appraisals among Italian homeowners," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1248, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2012/01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.