IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nuf/econwp/1806.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Speed of Innovation Diffusion

Author

Listed:
  • Itai Arieli

    (Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion–Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Yakov Babichenko

    (Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Technion–Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Ron Peretz

    (Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University)

  • H. Peyton Young

    (London School of Economics and Nuffield College, University of Oxford)

Abstract

New ways of doing things often get started through the actions of a few innovators, then diffuse rapidly as more and more people come into contact with prior adopters in their social network. Much of the literature focuses on the speed of diffusion as a function of the network topology. In practice, however, the topology may not be known with any precision, and it is constantly in flux as links are formed and severed. Here we establish an upper bound on the expected waiting time until a given proportion of the population has adopted that holds independently of the network structure. Kreindler and Young [33, 2014] demonstrated such a bound for regular networks when agents choose between two options: the innovation and the status quo. Our bound holds for directed and undirected networks of arbitrary size and degree distribution, and for multiple competing innovations with different payoffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Itai Arieli & Yakov Babichenko & Ron Peretz & H. Peyton Young, 2018. "The Speed of Innovation Diffusion," Economics Papers 2018-W06, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:1806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/Papers/2018/2018W06_ID5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amitabh Chandra & Douglas O. Staiger, 2007. "Productivity Spillovers in Health Care: Evidence from the Treatment of Heart Attacks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 103-140.
    2. Timothy Conley & Udry Christopher, 2001. "Social Learning Through Networks: The Adoption of New Agricultural Technologies in Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 668-673.
    3. Itai Arieli & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Stochastic Learning Dynamics and Speed of Convergence in Population Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 627-676, March.
    4. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521857406, January.
    5. Ellison, Glenn & Fudenberg, Drew & Imhof, Lorens A., 2016. "Fast convergence in evolutionary models: A Lyapunov approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-36.
    6. Matthew O. Jackson & Leeat Yariv, 2007. "Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 92-98, May.
    7. Munshi, Kaivan & Myaux, Jacques, 2006. "Social norms and the fertility transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-38, June.
    8. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1995. "Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1176-1209, December.
    9. Blume Lawrence E., 1993. "The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 387-424, July.
    10. Burke, Mary A. & Fournier, Gary M. & Prasad, Kislaya, 2010. "Geographic variations in a model of physician treatment choice with social interactions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 418-432, March.
    11. Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2012. "How Homophily Affects the Speed of Learning and Best-Response Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1287-1338.
    12. Elchanan Mossel & Allan Sly & Omer Tamuz, 2015. "Strategic Learning and the Topology of Social Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(5), pages 1755-1794, September.
    13. Hans-Peter Kohler & Jere Behrman & Susan Watkins, 2001. "The density of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from south nyanza district, kenya," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 43-58, February.
    14. H. Peyton Young, 2009. "Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1899-1924, December.
    15. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    16. Arieli, Itai & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Stochastic learning dynamics and speed of convergence in population games," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68715, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Vega-Redondo,Fernando, 2007. "Complex Social Networks," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521674096, January.
    18. Munshi, Kaivan, 2004. "Social learning in a heterogeneous population: technology diffusion in the Indian Green Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-213, February.
    19. Jackson, Matthew O. & Watts, Alison, 2002. "The Evolution of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 265-295, October.
    20. ,, 2013. "A general framework for rational learning in social networks," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
    21. Mary A. Burke & Gary M. Fournier & Kislaya Prasad, 2007. "The Diffusion of a Medical Innovation: Is Success in the Stars?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 588-603, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bilancini, Ennio & Boncinelli, Leonardo & Nax, Heinrich H., 2021. "What noise matters? Experimental evidence for stochastic deviations in social norms," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arieli, Itai & Babichenko, Yakov & Peretz, Ron & Young, H. Peyton, 2020. "The speed of innovation diffusion in social networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102538, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Itai Arieli & Yakov Babichenko & Ron Peretz & H. Peyton Young, 2020. "The Speed of Innovation Diffusion in Social Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 569-594, March.
    3. H Peyton Young & Itai Arieli & Yakov Babichenko & Ron Peretz, 2019. "The Speed of Innovation Diffusion in Social Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 884, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Itai Arieli & Yakov Babichenko & Ron Peretz & H. Peyton Young, 2019. "The Speed of Innovation Diffusion in Social Networks," Economics Papers 2019-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    5. H Peyton Young & Lucas Merrill Brown, 2016. "The Diffusion of a Social Innovation: Executive Stock Options from 1936," Economics Series Working Papers 777, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. H. Peyton Young, 2009. "Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations: Contagion, Social Influence, and Social Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1899-1924, December.
    7. Pongou, Roland & Serrano, Roberto, 2013. "Dynamic Network Formation in Two-Sided Economies," MPRA Paper 46021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pongou, Roland & Serrano, Roberto, 2016. "Volume of trade and dynamic network formation in two-sided economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 147-163.
    9. Camilo García-Jimeno & Angel Iglesias & Pinar Yildirim, 2018. "Women, Rails and Telegraphs: An Empirical Study of Information Diffusion and Collective Action," NBER Working Papers 24495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Matthew O. Jackson & Brian W. Rogers & Yves Zenou, 2016. "Networks: An Economic Perspective," Papers 1608.07901, arXiv.org.
    11. H Peyton Young, 2014. "The Evolution of Social Norms," Economics Series Working Papers 726, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. B Kelsey Jack, "undated". "Market Inefficiencies and the Adoption of Agricultural Technologies in Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 50, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    13. Vivi Alatas & Abhijit Banerjee & Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken, 2016. "Network Structure and the Aggregation of Information: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1663-1704, July.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Munther A. Dahleh & Ilan Lobel & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2011. "Bayesian Learning in Social Networks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(4), pages 1201-1236.
    15. Jackson, Matthew O. & Zenou, Yves, 2015. "Games on Networks," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
    16. Jonathan Newton, 2018. "Evolutionary Game Theory: A Renaissance," Games, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-67, May.
    17. Hellmann, Tim & Staudigl, Mathias, 2014. "Evolution of social networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 583-596.
    18. Islam, Asadul & Ushchev, Philip & Zenou, Yves & Zhang, Xin, 2019. "The Value of Information in Technology Adoption," IZA Discussion Papers 12672, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Lelarge, Marc, 2012. "Diffusion and cascading behavior in random networks," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 752-775.
    20. Tsakas, Nikolas, 2017. "Diffusion by imitation: The importance of targeting agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 118-151.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:1806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maxine Collett (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.