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Properties of etimated characteristic roots

Author

Listed:
  • Bent Nielsen

    (Nuffield College, Oxford University)

  • Heino Bohn Nielsen

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

Estimated characteristic roots in stationary autoregressions are shown to give rather noisy information about their population equivalents. This is remarkable given the central role of the characteristic roots in the theory of autoregressive processes. In the asymptotic analysis the problems appear when multiple roots are present as this imply a non-differentiability so the d-method does not apply, convergence rates are slow, and the asymptotic distribution is non-normal. In finite samples this has a considerable influence on the finite sample distribution unless the roots are far apart. With increasing order of the autoregressions it becomes increasingly difficult to place the roots far apart giving a very noisy signal from the characteristic roots.

Suggested Citation

  • Bent Nielsen & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2008. "Properties of etimated characteristic roots," Economics Papers 2008-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0807
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    File URL: http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2008/w7/NN2008.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clive W. J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2006. "Dynamics of Model Overfitting Measured in terms of Autoregressive Roots," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 347-365, May.
    2. Søren Johansen, 2003. "The asymptotic variance of the estimated roots in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 663-678, November.
    3. Wymer, C R, 1972. "Econometric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 565-577, May.
    4. Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 256-271, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlomagno, Guillermo, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Onatski, Alexei & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Unit Roots In White Noise," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 485-508, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregression; Characteristic root.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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