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The Household Fallacy

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  • Roger Farmer
  • Pawel Zabczyk

Abstract

We refer to the idea that government must ‘tighten its belt’ as a necessary policy response to higher indebtedness as the household fallacy. We provide a reason to be skeptical of this claim that holds even if the economy always operates at full employment and all markets clear. Our argument rests on the fact that, in an overlapping-generations (OLG) model, changes in government debt cause changes in the real interest rate that redistribute the burden of repayment across generations. We do not rely on the assumption that the equilibrium is dynamically inefficient, and our argument holds in a version of the OLG model where the real interest rate is always positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Farmer & Pawel Zabczyk, 2018. "The Household Fallacy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 487, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:487
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    3. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2012. "Confidence, Crashes and Animal Spirits," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 155-172, March.
    4. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    5. Cass, David & Okuno, Masahiro & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1979. "The role of money in supporting the pareto optimality of competitive equilibrium in consumption-loan type models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 41-80, February.
    6. Gourieroux, C & Laffont, J J & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Rational Expectations in Dynamic Linear Models: Analysis of the Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 409-425, March.
    7. Costas Azariadis & Roger Guesnerie, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(5), pages 725-737.
    8. Balasko, Yves & Shell, Karl, 1981. "The overlapping-generations model. II. The case of pure exchange with money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 112-142, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alam, Md. Samsul & Miah, Mohammad Dulal & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "The nexus between access to electricity and labour productivity in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 715-726.
    2. Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Lanham, Christopher M. & Brozynski, Max T. & Vázquez-Canteli, José R. & Castejón, Nicolás Castillo & Nagy, Zoltan, 2018. "Optimal decarbonization pathways for urban residential building energy services," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1311-1325.
    3. Srinivasan, Suchita & Carattini, Stefano, 2020. "Adding fuel to fire? Social spillovers in the adoption of LPG in India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    deficit; austerity; government budget;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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