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Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data

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  • Paolo Lucchino
  • Dr Chiara Rosazza Bondibene
  • Jonathan Portes

Abstract

Immigration has been central in recent UK policy debates and has attracted significant concern over its possible adverse effect on labour market outcomes. This paper contributes to the evidence on this issue by presenting initial results on the impact of migration inflows on the claimant count rate using previously unused data on National Insurance Number registrations of foreign nationals. Our results, which appear robust to different specifications, different levels of geographic aggregation, and to a number of tests, seem to confirm the lack of any impact of migration on unemployment in aggregate. We find no association between migrant inflows and claimant unemployment. In addition, we test for whether the impact of migration on claimant unemployment varies according to the state of the economic cycle. We find no evidence of a more adverse during periods of low growth or the recent recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Lucchino & Dr Chiara Rosazza Bondibene & Jonathan Portes, 2012. "Examining the relationship between immigration and unemployment using National Insurance Number registration data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 386, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:386
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    Cited by:

    1. Deboshree Ghosh & Heather Dickey, 2024. "The Wage Impact of Immigration into the UK After the Great Recession," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1943-1961, December.
    2. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2016. "Unemployed, Now What? The Effect of Immigration on Unemployment Transitions of Native-born Workers in the United States," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 15013, Universidad EAFIT.
    3. Giuntella, Osea & Nicodemo, Catia & Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2018. "The effects of immigration on NHS waiting times," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 123-143.
    4. Kingston, Gillian & O'Connell, Philip J. & Kelly, Elish, 2013. "Ethnicity and Nationality in the Irish Labour Market: Evidence from the QNHS Equality Module," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT230.
    5. Duszczyk, Maciej & Góra, Marek & Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2013. "Costs and Benefits of Labor Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries: The Case of Poland," IZA Discussion Papers 7664, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Marco Alfano & Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2016. "Immigration and the UK: Reflections After Brexit," Development Working Papers 402, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 28 Sep 2016.
    7. Olubukola Oduntan & Ian Ruthven, 2021. "People and places: Bridging the information gaps in refugee integration," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 72(1), pages 83-96, January.
    8. Fernando Rios-Avila & Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration on the Native-born Unemployed," Economics Policy Note Archive 16-3, Levy Economics Institute.

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