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Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8

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  • Dr Tatiana Fic
  • Ray Barrell
  • Dawn Holland

Abstract

New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, surrounding the determination of the optimal exchange rate. In effect, the probability of misalignment of the entry rate can be a non-zero one. Given the possible - if not inevitable - misspecification of the equilibrium rate it is thus advisable to focus on the effects of a misalignment of the entry rate for the economy, as it has implications for countries’ both real and nominal convergence. An overvalued exchange rate would have an adverse impact on a country’s competitiveness and its growth, while an undervalued currency would contribute to an overheating of the economy and an excessive inflation. The objective of this paper is to better understand the role of the entry rates for short run inflation and GDP developments and their implications for the inflation criterion and the real convergence process. Having estimated equilibrium exchange rates for the eight out of ten countries that entered the EU in May 2004: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia we conduct simulations showing what their adjustments to equilibrium would be if their entry rates deviated from the optimal ones.
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Suggested Citation

  • Dr Tatiana Fic & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2006. "Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 275, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    2. Fic, Tatiana & Barrell, Ray & Holland, Dawn, 2008. "Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 761-774.
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    5. Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates of fundamental real exchange rates for the five eu pre-accession countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(4), pages 291-315.
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    1. Fic, Tatiana & Barrell, Ray & Holland, Dawn, 2008. "Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 761-774.
    2. Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2012. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 226-251, July.
    3. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fic, 2010. "Integration, Globalisation, Technology and Trade Patterns in the EU8," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(1).

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