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Real Time Indicators During the COVID-19 Pandemic Individual Predictors & Selection

Author

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  • George Kapetanios
  • Fotis Papailias

Abstract

This technical report aims to present a generalised framework for assessing the predictive content of ONS real time indicators in both dimensions: (i) individual predictors (i.e. variable-by-variable), and (ii) using machine learning techniques to build variable selection models. The evaluation is done on a nowcasting basis (h = 0). Simple correlation and predictive power scores are included as well as best subset selection, penalised regressions, random forests and principal components.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2022. "Real Time Indicators During the COVID-19 Pandemic Individual Predictors & Selection," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-15, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:escoet:escoe-tr-15
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    File URL: https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/18105207/ESCoE-TR-15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    2. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    4. George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2021. "UK Economic Conditions during the Pandemic: Assessing the Economy using ONS Faster Indicators," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-10, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    5. J. C. G. Boot & W. Feibes & J. H. C. Lisman, 1967. "Further Methods of Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 65-75, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kohns, David & Potjagailo, Galina, 2023. "Flexible Bayesian MIDAS: time‑variation, group‑shrinkage and sparsity," Bank of England working papers 1025, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    factor models; nowcasting; penalised regression; variable selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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