IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nse/doctra/g2014-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of French Retirement Reforms on the Predictability of the Amount of Pension

Author

Listed:
  • P. AUBERT

    (Conseil d'orientation des retraites et Insee)

Abstract

Transparent pension rules imply that workers are able to predict, a few years before they retire, the approximate amount of public pension they will receive. This predictability of the amount of pension is also a necessary condition to enable workers to make an informed decision when they choose the age at which they wish to retire. However, the several retirement reforms across the past 20 years in France may have hindered the predictability of the level of pension in the French public pension system, by modifying calculation rules for workers who were already very close to retirement ages. We quantify this impact of retirement reforms on the predictability of pension for workers aged 50 and more, by running simulations using a microsimulation model. Although there exists in all cohorts a share of workers who were not impacted by retirement reforms and therefore enjoyed a complete predictability of their pension, this happens to concern only a minority of workers. Among all cohorts born between 1933 and 1956, most workers actually had to face changes in calculation rules after the age of 50, and therefore could only make at that age and also often at the age of 55 a biased prediction of their future level of public pension. However, the change in the level of pension either negative or positive remains small in most cases.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Aubert, 2014. "The Impact of French Retirement Reforms on the Predictability of the Amount of Pension," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2014-04, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:doctra:g2014-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bnsp.insee.fr/ark:/12148/bc6p06zr72d/f1.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2014-04
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sophie Buffeteau & Emmanuelle Crenner & Sylvie Le Minez & Didier Blanchet, 2011. "Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2 : principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 441(1), pages 101-121.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antoine Bozio & Simon Rabaté & Audrey Rain & Maxime To, 2019. "Quelles règles de pilotage pour un système de retraite à rendement défini?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02514738, HAL.
    2. Pierre-Yves Cabannes & Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Caroline Klein & Guy Lalanne & Olivier Monso & Erwan Pouliquen & Olivier Simon, 2012. "Survol de Mésange : un modèle macroéconomique à l'usage du praticien," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 451(1), pages 179-216.
    3. Emanuele Ciani & Marcello Morciano, 2011. "Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0090, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    4. Marion Bachelet & Magali Beffy & Didier Blanchet, 2011. "Projeter l’impact des réformes des retraites sur l’activité des 55 ans et plus : une comparaison de trois modèles," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 441(1), pages 123-143.
    5. Anne LAVIGNE & Christophe DANIEL & Stéphane MOTTET & Jesus Herell NZE-OBAME & Bruno SEJOURNE & Christian Rodrigue TAGNE, 2016. "L’équivalent patrimonial des droits à la Retraite en France : méthodologie et mesure à partir de l’Echantillon Inter-régime de retraités (version de Février 2016)," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2351, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. François Legendre, 2019. "The Emergence and Consolidation of Microsimulation Methods in France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 201-217.
    7. Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO, 2017. "Does the introduction of non-contributory social benefits discourage registered labour? Testing the impact of pension moratoriums on unregistered employment in Argentina (2003-2015)," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2526, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Didier Blanchet & Sylvie Le Minez & Anthony Marino, 2017. "Building and Interpreting Macro/Micro Estimates of Accrued-to-Date Pension Liabilities: French Reforms as a Case Study," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(1), pages 70-94, March.
    9. Leonardo Eric CALCAGNO, 2017. "Does the introduction of non-contributory social benefits discourage registered labour? Testing the impact of pension moratoriums on unregistered employment in Argentina (2003-2015)," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2383, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Leonardo Eric Calcagno, 2017. "Does the introduction of non-contributory social benefits discourage registered labour? Testing the impact of pension moratoriums on unregistered employment in Argentina (2003-2015)," Working Papers hal-01611132, HAL.
    11. P. Aubert & S. Rabaté, 2014. "How Are Gains in Life Expectancy Shared between a Longer Career and a Longer Retirement Span?," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2014-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension system; microsimulation;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nse:doctra:g2014-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: INSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inseefr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.