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En chemin vers la neutralite carbone. Mais quel chemin ?

Author

Listed:
  • R. ABBAS

    (INSEE)

  • N. CARNOT

    (INSEE)

  • M. LEQUIEN

    (INSEE)

  • A. QUARTIER-LA-TENTE

    (INSEE)

  • S.ROUX

    (INSEE)

Abstract

Avec un modèle de choix optimal d’investissement – ou d’echouage – en capital brun, emetteur de gaz à effet de serre, ou vert, sans emissions, nous decrivons les transitions optimales vers la neutralite carbone qui respectent des contraintes climatiques de type plafonds ponctuels d’emissions (Fit for 55) ou budget carbone. Nous montrons que : i) un echouage anticipe ne peut pas se produire avec des cibles ponctuelles ; ii) pour limiter le rechauffement à un niveau donne, introduire explicitement cette contrainte sous la forme d’un budget carbone restant minimise le coût economique associe, induisant un echouage initial eleve avec des budgets limites. Des plafonds d’emissions reguliers dès la première annee, et choisis à partir des emissions de cette trajectoire optimale, entraînent une trajectoire proche ; iii) à cumul d’emissions donne, retarder la transition augmente les coûts et l’echouage ; iv) l’investissement total durant et après la transition est inferieur à celui de l’etat initial. Tous les codes utilises sont disponibles sous https://github.com/InseeFrLab/DT-way-to-net-zero.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Abbas & N. Carnot & M. Lequien & A. Quartier-La-Tente & S.Roux, 2024. "En chemin vers la neutralite carbone. Mais quel chemin ?," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-11, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:nse:doctra:2024-11
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    File URL: https://www.bnsp.insee.fr/ark:/12148/bc6p091nwvh/f1.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transition ecologique; budget carbone; neutralite carbone; capital echoue; investissements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • P18 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Energy; Environment

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