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A simple method for testing cointegration subject to regime changes

Author

Listed:
  • Vasco J. Gabriel

    (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

  • Martin Sola

    (Birkbeck College, University of London
    Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Argentina)

  • Zacharias Psaradakis

    (Birkbeck College, University of London)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a simple method for testing cointegration in models that allow for multiple shifts in the long run relationship. The procedure consists of computing conventional residual-based tests with standardized residuals from Markov switching estimation. No new critical values are needed. An empirical application to the present value model of stock prices is presented, complemented by a small Monte Carlo experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2001. "A simple method for testing cointegration subject to regime changes," NIPE Working Papers 15/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:15/2001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    5. Gregory, Allan W. & Nason, James M. & Watt, David G., 1996. "Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 321-341.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    8. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-168, March-Apr.
    9. B. P. M. McCabe & S. J. Leybourne & Y. Shin, 1997. "A Parametric approach to testing the null of cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 395-413, July.
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    12. Inoue, Atsushi, 1999. "Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 215-237, June.
    13. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    14. Kuo, Biing-Shen, 1998. "Test for partial parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 337-368, June.
    15. Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2002. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple regime shifts," NIPE Working Papers 7/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    16. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    17. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Markov Switching; Standardized residuals.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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