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U.S. Housing Price Boom–Busts In Historical Perspective

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  • Michael D. Bordo

Abstract

There is present concern that housing prices in the U.S. are undergoing an unsustainable boom, which some refer to as a bubble, that will end in a bust with dire consequences for the real economy. This paper considers whether this dire scenario is likely to happen. My reading of the literature on the housing boom and study of U.S. economic history makes me skeptical. The U.S. has had a long history of housing booms which were regional or local. It never experienced a national boom-bust and this episode will likely repeat the experience of the past.

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  • Michael D. Bordo, 2005. "U.S. Housing Price Boom–Busts In Historical Perspective," NFI Policy Briefs 2005-PB-02, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:nfi:nfipbs:2005-pb-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thomas F Helbling, 2005. "Housing price bubbles - a tale based on housing price booms and busts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 30-41, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2005. "The Brave New World of Central Banking: The Policy Challenges Posed by Asset Price Booms and Busts," Working Papers 2005/14, Czech National Bank.
    5. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
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    Keywords

    housing prices; boom; bust; bubble; cycle;
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