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The network origins of aggregate fluctuations: a demand-side approach

Author

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  • Emanuele Citera

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

  • Shyam Gouri Suresh

    (Department of Economics, Davidson College and Department of Economics, FLAME University)

  • Mark Setterfield

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

Abstract

We construct a model of cyclical growth with agent-based features designed to study the network origins of aggregate fluctuations from a demand-side perspective. In our model, aggregate fluctuations result from variations in investment behavior at firm level motivated by endogenously-generated changes in `animal spirits' or the state of long run expectations (SOLE). In addition to being influenced by their own economic conditions, firms pay attention to the performance of first-degree network neighbours, weighted (to differing degrees) by the centrality of these neighbours in the network, when revising their SOLE. This allows us to analyze the effects of the centrality of linked network neighbours on the amplitude of aggregate fluctuations. We show that the amplitude of fluctuations is significantly affected by the eigenvector centrality, and the weight attached to the eigenvector centrality, of linked network neighbours. The dispersion of this effect about its mean is shown to be similarly important, resulting in the possibility that network properties can result in `great moderations' giving way to sudden increases in the volatility of aggregate economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Citera & Shyam Gouri Suresh & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "The network origins of aggregate fluctuations: a demand-side approach," Working Papers 2118, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2118
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate fluctuations; cyclical growth; animal spirits; state of long run expectations; agent-based model; random network; preferential attachment; small world;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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