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Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation - The Open Economy Case

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  • Guillermo Calvo
  • Oya Celasun
  • Michael Kumhof

Abstract

This paper develops a model of inflation inertia based on optimizing forward looking staggered price setting in a small open economy. Unlike in current models of sticky prices, transitions to a lower steady state inflation rate take time even if they are fully credible, and they are associated with significant output losses. There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. For reasonable parameter values inflation stabilization improves welfare. The optimal steady state is reached at the Friedman rule. Technical appendices are available at www.nber.org/data-appendix/w9557/ inert-techapp.pdf

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Calvo & Oya Celasun & Michael Kumhof, 2003. "Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation - The Open Economy Case," NBER Working Papers 9557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9557
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    Cited by:

    1. Minford, Patrick & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2007. "Optimising Indexation Arrangements under Calvo Contracts and their Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August.
    3. Bustamante, Felipe & Gallardo, Bastián & Le Fort Varela, Guillermo, 2020. "Macroeconomic stability and economic growth: myths and realities," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    4. Caruso-Bloeck, Martin & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "News of disinflation and firms’ expectations: New causal evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States," Working Papers 2006/11, Czech National Bank.
    6. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2010. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve empirical estimates for middle-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 555-570, June.
    7. Cavalcanti, Marco A, 2010. "Desinflação Ótima na Presença de Inércia Inflacionária, Formação de Hábito e Fricções Monetárias," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(4), December.
    8. Michael Kumhof, 2004. "Inflation Inertia- THe Role of Multiple, Interacting Pricing Rigidities," Working Papers 182004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2005. "A Rational Expectations Model of Optimal Inflation Inertia," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 429, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Luis F. Céspedes C. & Claudio Soto G., 2006. "Inflation Targeting And Monetary Policy Credibility In Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 53-70, December.
    11. Marco Antonio Vega de la Cruz & Diego Winkelried Quezada, 2004. "El efecto arrastre de la inflación mundial en economías pequeñas y abiertas," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2004, July-Dece.
    12. Marco Antonio Vega de la Cruz & Diego Winkelried Quezada, 2004. "The Dragging Effect of World Inflation in Small Open Economies," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2004eng, July-Dece.
    13. Buiter, Willem, 2006. "How Robust is the New Conventional Wisdom? The Surprising Fragility of the Theoretical Foundations of Inflation Targeting and C," CEPR Discussion Papers 5772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2004. "How Does Global Disinflation Drag Inflation in Small Open Economies?," Macroeconomics 0403008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mirta Noemi Sataka Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva & Maria da Glória D. Silva Araújo, 2005. "The Effect of Adverse Oil Price Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output Using a Dynamic Small Open Economy General Equilibrium Model With Staggered Price for Brazil," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 348, Central Bank of Chile.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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