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The Impact of Social Policy and Economic Activity Throughout the Fertility Decision Tree

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  • Phillip B. Levine

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of changes in abortion and welfare policies along with economic conditions over the 1985 to 1996 period at each stage of the fertility decision tree, including sexual activity, contraception, pregnancy, abortion, and birth. Examining the impact of policy at each stage of the decision tree represents a useful approach because consistent findings provide stronger evidence of a causal link than focusing on just one stage. The abortion policies considered are parental involvement laws and mandatory waiting periods; welfare policies include benefit generosity as well as state-level welfare waivers as a whole and the 'family cap.' State-level data over this period are used to examine abortion, birth, and pregnancy outcomes, while microdata from the 1988 and 1995 National Surveys of Family Growth are employed to examine sexual activity and contraception. For those policies that target certain subgroups of the population, estimates are provided separately for each group and compared to help further identify causality. I find that parental involvement laws increase contraception use among minors, leading to fewer pregnancies and, therefore, fewer abortions; teen births do not rise in response. Evidence regarding welfare policies does not consistently support any impact throughout the decision tree.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip B. Levine, 2002. "The Impact of Social Policy and Economic Activity Throughout the Fertility Decision Tree," NBER Working Papers 9021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9021
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    17. Phillip B. Levine & Douglas Staiger, 2002. "Abortion as Insurance," NBER Working Papers 8813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Blank, Rebecca M. & George, Christine C. & London, Rebecca A., 1996. "State abortion rates the impact of policies, providers, politics, demographics, and economic environment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 513-553, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mike Brewer & Anita Ratcliffe & Sarah dSmith, 2012. "Does welfare reform affect fertility? Evidence from the UK," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 245-266, January.
    2. Kamila Cygan-Rehm & Regina T. Riphahn, 2014. "Teenage pregnancies and births in Germany: patterns and developments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3503-3522, October.
    3. Levine, Phillip B., 2003. "Parental involvement laws and fertility behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 861-878, September.
    4. repec:pri:cheawb:adriana_booms is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2012. "Why Is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States So High and Why Does It Matter?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 141-163, Spring.
    6. Robert Kaestner & Sanders Korenman & June O'Neill, 2003. "Has welfare reform changed teenage behaviors?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 225-248.
    7. Elizabeth Ananat & Anna Gassman-Pines & Christina M. Gibson-Davis, 2013. "Community-Wide Job Loss and Teenage Fertility," NBER Working Papers 19003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Schmidt, Lucie, 2007. "Effects of infertility insurance mandates on fertility," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 431-446, May.
    9. Melissa Schettini Kearney, 2010. "Teen Pregnancy Prevention," NBER Chapters, in: Targeting Investments in Children: Fighting Poverty When Resources Are Limited, pages 221-247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Rajeev Dehejia & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2003. "The Timing of Births: Is the Health of Infants Counter-Cyclical?," NBER Working Papers 10122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Elizabeth Ananat & Anna Gassman-Pines & Christina Gibson-Davis, 2013. "Community-Wide Job Loss and Teenage Fertility: Evidence From North Carolina," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2151-2171, December.
    12. Ho-Po Crystal Wong, 2015. "The Quantity and Quality Adjustment of Births when Having More is Not Subsidized: the Effect of the TANF Family Cap on Fertility and Birth Weight," Working Papers 15-04, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    13. Sara Ayllón, 2019. "Job insecurity and fertility in Europe," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1321-1347, December.
    14. Fernanda Marquez-Padilla & Biani Saavedra, 2022. "The unintended effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders on abortions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 269-305, January.
    15. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2009. "Subsidized Contraception, Fertility, and Sexual Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 137-151, February.
    16. Leonard M. Lopoo & Sara McLanahan & Irwin Garfinkel, 2003. "Explaining The Trend In Teenage Birth Rates From 1981-1999," Working Papers 960, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing..
    17. Gonzalez, Fidel & Quast, Troy, 2022. "The relationship between abortion rates and economic fluctuations," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    18. Ted Joyce & Robert Kaestner & Sanders Korenman & Stanley Henshaw, 2004. "Family Cap Provisions and Changes in Births and Abortions," NBER Working Papers 10214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sen, Bisakha & Wingate, Martha Slay & Kirby, Russell, 2012. "The relationship between state abortion-restrictions and homicide deaths among children under 5 years of age: A longitudinal study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 156-164.
    20. repec:pri:crcwel:wp02-05-lopoo is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Bisakha Sen, 2007. "State Abortion Restrictions and Child Fatal‐Injury: An Exploratory Study," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 553-574, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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