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Trade Openness and Investment Instability

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  • Assaf Razin
  • Efraim Sadka
  • Tarek Coury

Abstract

In the presence of lumpy investment cost of adjustment, globalization may have non-conventional effects on the level of investment and its cyclical behavior. Trade openness may lead to a discrete 'jump' in the level of investment, as it may trigger a discrete change in the terms of trade. Such a shift creates a sizeable boost in aggregate investment. But trade openness may also lead to boom-bust cycles of investment (namely, multiple equilibrium) supported by self-validating expectations. In this sense globalization destabilizes the economy. There can be substantial gains from globalization in the investment-boom equilibrium. However, gains could be small, or negative, in the investment-bust equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Tarek Coury, 2002. "Trade Openness and Investment Instability," NBER Working Papers 8827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8827
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    Cited by:

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    2. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Akinleye Simeon Oludiran & Laleye Nicaise Abimbola, 2018. "Major Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Region," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 121-162, Winter.
    4. Hira Mujahid & Shaista Alam, 2014. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Demand and Price Volatility in Pakistan: Co Integration Approach for Compensation Hypothesis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 744-754, June.
    5. Vedia Jerez, Daniel Hernan, 2007. "De riesgo y pánico: una analítica de volatilidad y crecimiento 1960-2006 [About risk and panic, an overview of volatility and growth 1960-2006]," MPRA Paper 21577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yamin Ahmad & Pietro Cova & Rodrigo Harrison, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment versus Portfolio Investment : A Global Games Approach," Working Papers 05-03, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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