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DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices

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  • Eli Ofek
  • Matthew Richardson

Abstract

This paper provides one potential explanation for the rise, persistence and eventual fall of internet stock prices. Specifically, we appeal to a model of heterogenous agents with varying degrees of beliefs about asset payoffs who are subject to short sales constraints. In this framework, it is possible that 'optimistic' investors overwhelm 'pessimistic' ones, leading to prices not reflecting fundamental values about cash flows summarized by aggregate beliefs. Empirical support for this explanation is provided by exploring the behavior of internet stock prices during the period January 1998 to November 2000. In particular, we document four important elements to our story: (i) the high level of internet stock prices given their underlying fundamentals, (ii) responses of stock prices to a shift towards potentially optimistic investors, (iii) empirical results consistent with shorting being at its maximum possible level for internet stocks, and (iv) the eventual fall, or bubble bursting, of internet stocks being tied to the increase in the number of sellers to the market via expiration of lockup agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2001. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 8630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8630
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark P. Bauman & Somnath Das, 2004. "Stock Market Valuation of Deferred Tax Assets: Evidence from Internet Firms," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9‐10), pages 1223-1260, November.
    2. Michael R. Powers & David M. Schizer & Martin Shubik, 2003. "Market Bubbles and Wasteful Avoidance: Tax and Regulatory Constraints on Short Sales," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1413, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Alex Chinco, 2023. "The Ex Ante Likelihood of Bubbles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 1222-1244, February.
    4. Jan Pekař, 2017. "Importance of Managerial Accounting from High Growth Online Company Valuation Perspective," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 129-144.
    5. Maximilian-Benedikt Herwarth Kohn & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2017. "Speculative bubbles and contagion: Analysis of volatility’s clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1411453-141, January.
    6. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2003. "Limited Arbitrage and Short Sales Restrictions: Evidence from the Options Markets," NBER Working Papers 9423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "Meta-Communication and Market Dynamics. Reflexive Interactions of Financial Markets and the Mass Media," Finance 0307014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mark P. Bauman & Somnath Das, 2004. "Stock Market Valuation of Deferred Tax Assets: Evidence from Internet Firms," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9-10), pages 1223-1260.

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