IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/8308.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Earnings Quality and Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Konan Chan
  • Louis K. C. Chan
  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh
  • Josef Lakonishok

Abstract

An exclusive focus on bottom-line income misses important information about the quality of earnings. Accruals (the difference between accounting earnings and cash flow) are reliably, negatively associated with future stock returns. Earnings increases that are accompanied by high accruals, suggesting low-quality earnings, are associated with poor future returns. We explore various hypotheses -- earnings manipulation, extrapolative biases about future growth, and under-reaction to business conditions -- to explain accruals' predictive power. Distinctions between the hypotheses are based on evidence from operating performance, the behavior of individual accrual items, and discretionary versus nondiscretionary components of accruals.

Suggested Citation

  • Konan Chan & Louis K. C. Chan & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Josef Lakonishok, 2001. "Earnings Quality and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8308
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8308.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patricia M. Dechow & Richard G. Sloan & Amy P. Sweeney, 1996. "Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 1-36, March.
    2. Jones, Jj, 1991. "Earnings Management During Import Relief Investigations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 193-228.
    3. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    4. Degeorge, Francois & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1999. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-33, January.
    5. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    6. Teoh, Siew Hong & Welch, Ivo & Wong, T. J., 1998. "Earnings management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 63-99, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galya Taseva-Petkova, 2015. "Trade credit and risk of insolvency," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 77-100,101-.
    2. Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Watanabe, Wako, 2013. "Are trade creditors relationship lenders?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 24-38.
    3. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2013. "Growth of aggregate corporate earnings and cash-flows: Persistence and determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 13-23.
    4. Sapienza, Paola & Polk, Christopher, 2003. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Kenshi Taketa & Gregory F. Udell, 2007. "Lending Channels and Financial Shocks: The Case of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Trade Credit and the Japanese Banking Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 1-44, November.
    6. Kim, Soonho & Na, Haejung, 2020. "Earnings information, arbitrage constraints, and the forecast dispersion anomaly," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    7. Gene D'Avolio & Efi Gildor & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Technology, information production, and market efficiency," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 125-160.
    8. Liu, Yi & Mantecon, Tomas, 2017. "Is sustainable competitive advantage an advantage for stock investors?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 299-314.
    9. Augustine O. Okolie Ph.D, FCA, 2014. "Audit Firm Size and Market Price Per Share of Quoted Companies in Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 4(5), pages 100-117, May.
    10. Joanna Lizińska & Leszek Czapiewski, 2018. "Towards Economic Corporate Sustainability in Reporting: What Does Earnings Management around Equity Offerings Mean for Long-Term Performance?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-23, November.
    11. Daniel Bergstresser & Mihir A. Desai & Joshua Rauh, 2004. "Earnings Manipulation and Managerial Investment Decisions: Evidence from Sponsored Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 10543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joanna Lizińska & Leszek Czapiewski, 2019. "Is Window-Dressing around Going Public Beneficial? Evidence from Poland," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    13. Saravanan Kesavan & Vidya Mani, 2013. "The Relationship Between Abnormal Inventory Growth and Future Earnings for U.S. Public Retailers," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 6-23, May.
    14. Augustine O. Okolie Ph.D, FCA, 2014. "Audit Firm Size and Market Price Per Share of Quoted Companies in Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 100-117, May.
    15. Ashraf, Sumaira & Félix, Elisabete G.S. & Serrasqueiro, Zélia, 2020. "Development and testing of an augmented distress prediction model: A comparative study on a developed and an emerging market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    2. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    3. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    4. Jorge Farinha & Luis Filipe Viana, 2006. "Board structure and modified audit opinions: the case of the Portuguese Stock Exchange," CEF.UP Working Papers 0609, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Vander Bauwhede, Heidi & Willekens, Marleen & Gaeremynck, Ann, 2003. "Audit firm size, public ownership, and firms' discretionary accruals management," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22.
    6. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    7. Jiao, T. & Mertens, G.M.H. & Roosenboom, P.G.J., 2007. "Industry Valuation Driven Earnings Management," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-069-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    8. Sapienza, Paola & Polk, Christopher, 2003. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Christof Beuselinck & Marc Deloof & Sophie Manigart, 2004. "Venture Capital, Private Equity and Earnings Quality," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2004-02, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
    10. Johnson, Marilyn F. & Nelson, Karen K. & Frankel, Richard M., 2002. "The Relation Between Auditor's Fees for Non-audit Services and Earnings Quality," Research Papers 1696r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    11. Andreou, Christoforos K. & Lambertides, Neophytos & Panayides, Photis M., 2021. "Distress risk anomaly and misvaluation," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    12. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    13. Elnahas, Ahmed M. & Kabir Hassan, M. & Ismail, Ghada M., 2017. "Religion and mergers and acquisitions contracting: The case of earnout agreements," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 221-246.
    14. Hibbert, Ann Marie & Kang, Qiang & Kumar, Alok & Mishra, Suchi, 2020. "Heterogeneous beliefs and return volatility around seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 571-589.
    15. Bergman, Nittai K. & Jenter, Dirk, 2007. "Employee sentiment and stock option compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 667-712, June.
    16. Maria Jose Arcas & Caridad Martí, 2016. "Financial Performance Adjustment in English Local Governments," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 26(2), pages 141-152, June.
    17. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    18. Jiang, Fuxiu & Ma, Yunbiao & Wang, Xue, 2020. "Multiple blockholders and earnings management," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Dan Amiram & Zahn Bozanic & James D. Cox & Quentin Dupont & Jonathan M. Karpoff & Richard Sloan, 2018. "Financial reporting fraud and other forms of misconduct: a multidisciplinary review of the literature," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 732-783, June.
    20. Filip, Andrei & Huang, Zhongwei & Lui, Daphne, 2020. "Cross-listing and corporate malfeasance: Evidence from P-chip firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.