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Earnings Quality and Stock Returns

Author

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  • Konan Chan
  • Louis K. C. Chan
  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh
  • Josef Lakonishok

Abstract

An exclusive focus on bottom-line income misses important information about the quality of earnings. Accruals (the difference between accounting earnings and cash flow) are reliably, negatively associated with future stock returns. Earnings increases that are accompanied by high accruals, suggesting low-quality earnings, are associated with poor future returns. We explore various hypotheses -- earnings manipulation, extrapolative biases about future growth, and under-reaction to business conditions -- to explain accruals' predictive power. Distinctions between the hypotheses are based on evidence from operating performance, the behavior of individual accrual items, and discretionary versus nondiscretionary components of accruals.

Suggested Citation

  • Konan Chan & Louis K. C. Chan & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Josef Lakonishok, 2001. "Earnings Quality and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Uchida, Hirofumi & Udell, Gregory F. & Watanabe, Wako, 2013. "Are trade creditors relationship lenders?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 24-38.
    3. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2013. "Growth of aggregate corporate earnings and cash-flows: Persistence and determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 13-23.
    4. Sapienza, Paola & Polk, Christopher, 2003. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Kenshi Taketa & Gregory F. Udell, 2007. "Lending Channels and Financial Shocks: The Case of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Trade Credit and the Japanese Banking Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 1-44, November.
    6. Kim, Soonho & Na, Haejung, 2020. "Earnings information, arbitrage constraints, and the forecast dispersion anomaly," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    7. Gene D'Avolio & Efi Gildor & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Technology, information production, and market efficiency," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 125-160.
    8. Liu, Yi & Mantecon, Tomas, 2017. "Is sustainable competitive advantage an advantage for stock investors?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 299-314.
    9. Augustine O. Okolie Ph.D, FCA, 2014. "Audit Firm Size and Market Price Per Share of Quoted Companies in Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 4(5), pages 100-117, May.
    10. Joanna Lizińska & Leszek Czapiewski, 2018. "Towards Economic Corporate Sustainability in Reporting: What Does Earnings Management around Equity Offerings Mean for Long-Term Performance?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-23, November.
    11. Daniel Bergstresser & Mihir A. Desai & Joshua Rauh, 2004. "Earnings Manipulation and Managerial Investment Decisions: Evidence from Sponsored Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 10543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joanna Lizińska & Leszek Czapiewski, 2019. "Is Window-Dressing around Going Public Beneficial? Evidence from Poland," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    14. Augustine O. Okolie Ph.D, FCA, 2014. "Audit Firm Size and Market Price Per Share of Quoted Companies in Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 100-117, May.
    15. Ashraf, Sumaira & Félix, Elisabete G.S. & Serrasqueiro, Zélia, 2020. "Development and testing of an augmented distress prediction model: A comparative study on a developed and an emerging market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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