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Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro

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  • Michael B. Devereux
  • Charles Engel
  • Cedric Tille

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of the European single currency within a simple sticky price intertemporal model. The main issue we focus on is how the euro may alter the responsiveness of consumer prices to exchange rate changes. Our central conjectures is that the acceptance of the euro will lead European prices to become more insulated from exchange-rate volatility, much the way U.S. consumer prices already are. We show that this has profound consequences for both the volatility and levels of macroeconomic aggregates in both the U.S. and Europe. We find that European welfare is enhanced, and, more surprisingly U.S. shares in Europe's good fortune. Alternative assumptions about how pricing behavior will change lead to different conclusions, but in all cases we can derive specific implications for expected levels and volatility of macroeconomic varialbes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," NBER Working Papers 7382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7382
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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