IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6248.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Simulating U.S. Tax Reform

Author

Listed:
  • David Altig
  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Kent A. Smetters
  • Jan Walliser

Abstract

This paper uses a new large-scale dynamic simulation model to compare the equity, efficiency, and macroeconomic effects of five alternative to the current U.S. federal income tax. These reforms are a proportional income tax, a proportional consumption tax, a flat tax, a flat tax with transition relief, and a progressive variant of the flat tax called the 'X tax.' The model incorporates intragenerational heterogeneity and kinked budget constraints. It predicts major macroeconomic gains (including an 11 percent increase in long-run output) from replacing the federal tax system with a proportional consumption tax. Future middle- and upper-income classes gain from this policy, but initial older generations are hurt by the policy's implicit capital levy. Poor members of current and future generations also lose. The The flat tax, which adds a standard deduction to the consumption tax, makes all members of future generations better off, but at a cost of halving the economy's long-run output gain and harming initial older generations. Insulating these older generations through transition relief further reduces transition relief further reduces the long-run gains from tax reform. Switching to a proportional income tax without deductions and exemptions hurts current and future low lifetime earners, but helps everyone else. It also raises long-run output by over 5 percent. The X tax makes everyone better off in the long-run and also raises long-run output by 7.5 percent. But it harms initial older generations who bear its implicit wealth tax.

Suggested Citation

  • David Altig & Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent A. Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1997. "Simulating U.S. Tax Reform," NBER Working Papers 6248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6248
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6248.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles T. Carlstrom & David Altig, 1999. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income Inequality in a Life-Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1197-1215, December.
    2. John F. Henry & L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Economic Time," Macroeconomics 9811004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fehr, Hans & Ruocco, Anna, 1999. "Equity and efficiency aspects of the Italian debt reduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 569-589, December.
    3. Fougère, Maxime & Harvey, Simon & Mercenier, Jean & Mérette, Marcel, 2009. "Population ageing, time allocation and human capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 30-39, January.
    4. Mathieu-Bolh, Nathalie, 2010. "Welfare improving distributionally neutral tax reforms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1253-1268, September.
    5. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    6. Ventura, Gustavo, 1999. "Flat tax reform: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1425-1458, September.
    7. Ernst Fehr & Wolfgang Wiegard, 2001. "The Incidence of an Extended Ace Corporation Tax," CESifo Working Paper Series 484, CESifo.
    8. Edward N. Wolff & Ajit Zacharias, 2003. "The Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_372, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Katharine Anderson & Eric French & Tina Lam, 2004. "You can't take it with you: asset run-down at the end of the life cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 28(Q III), pages 40-54.
    10. Harry ter Rele, 2005. "Measuring lifetime redistribution in Dutch collective arrangements," CPB Document 79, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    13. Kristina V. Nesterova, 2024. "Estimating the effect of Progressive Personal Income Tax Schedule for Russia in a global CGE-OLG model," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 10(2), pages 334-354.
    14. Smetters, Kent & Walliser, Jan, 2004. "Opting out of social security," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1295-1306, July.
    15. Hirte, Georg, 2001. "Pension Policies for an Aging Society," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 14, number urn:isbn:9783161475399, September.
    16. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2001. "The Consumption Tax and Transitional Relief," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-120, January.
    17. Isabel Correia, 2010. "Consumption Taxes and Redistribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1673-1694, September.
    18. Isabel Correia, 2010. "Consumption Taxes and Redistribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1673-1694, September.
    19. Jaime Acosta-Margain, 2011. "Tax-benefit incidence of value added tax on food and medicine to fund progressive social expenditure," Working Papers 194, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    20. Zodrow, George R., 1999. "The Sales Tax, the VAT, and Taxes in Between--or, Is the Only Good NRST a "VAT in Drag"?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 3), pages 429-42, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2004. "Taxation, entrepreneurship, and wealth," Staff Report 340, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Mariacristina De Nardi & Marco Cagetti, 2005. "Estate taxes, entrepreneuship, and wealth," 2005 Meeting Papers 144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Eirini Andriopoulou & Panos Tsakloglou, 2015. "Once Poor, Always Poor? Do Initial Conditions Matter? Evidence from the ECHP," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Measurement of Poverty, Deprivation, and Economic Mobility, volume 23, pages 23-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Cohen, Joseph N., 2008. "Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America," MPRA Paper 22435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano & Yakub, Ma'aji Umar & Sanni, Ganiyu Kayode & Duke, Omolara, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 25053, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2010.
    7. Cohen, Joseph N, 2010. "Neoliberalism’s relationship with economic growth in the developing world: Was it the power of the market or the resolution of financial crisis?," MPRA Paper 24527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Benchimol, Jonathan & Ivashchenko, Sergey, 2021. "Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2082 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    11. Alexis Penot & Grégory Levieuge, 2009. "The Fed and the ECB: why such an apparent difference in reactivity?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(4), pages 319-337, November.
    12. Roy Kass, 1973. "A functional classification of metropolitan communities," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 10(3), pages 427-445, August.
    13. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    14. Dominik Grafenhofer & Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2005. "Probabilistic Aging," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    15. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    16. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    17. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    18. Rachel Moore & Brandon Pecoraro, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bases: Progressive Taxation of Capital and Labor Income," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(3), pages 335-391, May.
    19. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    20. Eladio Febrero & Maria-Angeles Cadarso, 2006. "Pay-As-You-Go versus funded systems. Some critical considerations," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 335-357.
    21. ALISTAIR DIEPPE & KEITH KÜSTER & PETER McADAM, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 507-537, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.