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Internationally Diversified Bond Portfolios: The Merits of Active Currency Risk Management

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  • Richard M. Levich
  • Lee R. Thomas

Abstract

A new statistical procedure is used to test for weak form efficiency in the foreign exchange futures markets. Using daily currency futures prices for the 1976-1990 period, we conclude that successive exchange rate changes have not been independent We examine the implications of this finding for two groups of investors: (1) return seeking investors considering foreign exchange as a separate asset class; (2) international portfolio investors deciding whether or not to currency hedge the foreign exchange rate exposures embedded in their non-dollar investments. Using the currency futures data and monthly data on 10-year dollar and non-dollar bonds, we conclude that active currency risk management, based on a simple application of technical trading signals, can substantially improve the risk-return opportunities for both groups of investors in comparison to passive currency strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard M. Levich & Lee R. Thomas, 1993. "Internationally Diversified Bond Portfolios: The Merits of Active Currency Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 4340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4340
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Z. Aliber, 1978. "Exchange Risk and Corporate International Finance," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-03362-1, October.
    2. Richard M. Levich & Lee R. Thomas, 1991. "The Significance of Technical Trading-Rule Profits in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Bootstrap Approach," NBER Working Papers 3818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. "Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
    4. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    5. Black, Fischer, 1990. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 899-907, July.
    6. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter A. Abken & Milind M. Shrikhande, 1997. "The role of currency derivatives in internationally diversified portfolios," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 3), pages 34-59.
    2. Arun Muralidhar & Masakazu Arikawa, 2007. "Hedging Currency Risk In International Investment And Trade," CARF F-Series CARF-F-090, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Mats Hansson & Eva Liljeblom & Anders Loflund, 2009. "International bond diversification strategies: the impact of currency, country, and credit risk," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5-6), pages 555-583.
    4. Luis Berggrun, 2005. "Currency Hedging for a Dutch Investor: The Case of Pension Funds and Insurers," DNB Working Papers 054, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Charles Pigott, 1993. "International interest rate convergence: a survey of the issues and evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Win), pages 24-37.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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