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Estimating the Economic and Budgetary Effects of Research Investments

Author

Listed:
  • Theresa Gullo
  • Benjamin Page
  • David Weiner
  • Heidi L. Williams

Abstract

Many US federal agencies model the economic and budgetary effects of research and development (R&D) investments -- both public R&D and private R&D -- as if R&D were the same as any other form of investment, such as physical capital investment. However, in recent decades a broad base of evidence has developed suggesting that such modeling may result in projections that are not well-aligned with the actual economic and budgetary effects of R&D investments. In this paper, we attempt to synthesize the economic evidence relevant to estimating the economic and budgetary effects of R&D, and examine how and where this research literature could potentially be incorporated into the standard projections produced by various federal agencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Theresa Gullo & Benjamin Page & David Weiner & Heidi L. Williams, 2025. "Estimating the Economic and Budgetary Effects of Research Investments," NBER Working Papers 33402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33402
    Note: PE PR
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    JEL classification:

    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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