IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/32922.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Arellano
  • Orazio Attanasio
  • Samuel Crossman
  • Víctor Sancibrián

Abstract

We develop a methodology for modeling household income processes when subjective probabilistic assessments of future income are available. This allows us to flexibly estimate conditional cdfs directly using elicited individual subjective probabilities, and to obtain empirical measurements of subjective risk and persistence. We then use two longitudinal surveys collected in rural India and rural Colombia to explore the nature of income dynamics in those contexts. Our results suggest linear income processes are rejected in favor of more flexible versions in both cases; subjective income distributions feature heteroskedasticity, conditional skewness and nonlinear persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Arellano & Orazio Attanasio & Samuel Crossman & Víctor Sancibrián, 2024. "Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Colombia," NBER Working Papers 32922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32922
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w32922.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2012. "Identifying Distributional Characteristics in Random Coefficients Panel Data Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 987-1020.
    2. Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hoderlein, Stefan & White, Halbert, 2012. "Nonparametric identification in nonseparable panel data models with generalized fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 300-314.
    2. Veronesi, Marcella & Reutemann, Tim & Zabel, Astrid & Engel, Stefanie, 2015. "Designing REDD+ schemes when forest users are not forest landowners: Evidence from a survey-based experiment in Kenya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 46-57.
    3. Jos'e Raimundo Carvalho & Diego de Maria Andr'e & Yuri Costa, 2023. "Individual Updating of Subjective Probability of Homicide Victimization: a "Natural Experiment'' on Risk Communication," Papers 2312.08171, arXiv.org.
    4. Brown, Joe & Hamoudi, Amar & Jeuland, Marc & Turrini, Gina, 2017. "Seeing, believing, and behaving: Heterogeneous effects of an information intervention on household water treatment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 141-159.
    5. Pieter Serneels & Stefan Dercon, 2021. "Aspirations, Poverty, and Education. Evidence from India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 163-183, January.
    6. Lekfuangfu, Warn N., 2022. "Mortality risk, perception, and human capital investments: The legacy of landmines in Cambodia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Yokoo, Hide-Fumi & Arimura, Toshi H. & Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda & Katayama, Hajime, 2023. "Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Baranov, Victoria & Bennett, Daniel & Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2015. "The indirect impact of antiretroviral therapy: Mortality risk, mental health, and HIV-negative labor supply," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 195-211.
    9. de Nicola, Francesca & Giné, Xavier, 2014. "How accurate are recall data? Evidence from coastal India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 52-65.
    10. Xavier d'Haultfoeuille & Stefan Hoderlein & Yuya Sasaki, 2013. "Nonlinear difference-in-differences in repeated cross sections with continuous treatments," CeMMAP working papers CWP40/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Giovanni Compiani & Yuichi Kitamura, 2016. "Using mixtures in econometric models: a brief review and some new results," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 95-127, October.
    12. William H Greene & Mark N Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2013. "Estimating the Standard Errors of Individual-Specific Parameters in Random Parameters Models," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1309, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    13. Bernard, Tanguy & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, 2012. "Measuring aspirations: Discussion and example from Ethiopia:," ESSP working papers 47, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Graham, Bryan S. & Hahn, Jinyong & Poirier, Alexandre & Powell, James L., 2018. "A quantile correlated random coefficients panel data model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 305-335.
    15. Laura Liu, 2017. "Density Forecasts in Panel Models: A semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Apr 2017.
    16. Michelson, Hope & Fairbairn, Anna & Ellison, Brenna & Maertens, Annemie & Manyong, Victor, 2021. "Misperceived quality: Fertilizer in Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    17. Aureo de Paula & Gil Shapira & Petra E. Todd, 2008. "How Beliefs about HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi, Fifth Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 Jul 2010.
    18. Ibirénoyé Romaric Sodjahin & Fabienne Femenia & Obafemi Philippe Koutchade & A. Carpentier, 2022. "On the economic value of the agronomic effects of crop diversification for farmers: estimation based on farm cost accounting data [Valeur économique des effets agronomiques de la diversification de," Working Papers hal-03639951, HAL.
    19. Sandro Ambuehl & B. Douglas Bernheim & Axel Ockenfels, 2019. "Projective Paternalism," CESifo Working Paper Series 7762, CESifo.
    20. Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Joanne K. Yoong, 2012. "Harmonization of Cross-National Studies of Aging to the Health and Retirement Study Expectations," Working Papers WR-861/3, RAND Corporation.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.