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Commercial Rivalry as Seller Incidence Shifting: Non-parametric Accounting of the China Shock

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  • James E. Anderson

Abstract

Intense US-China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. The accounting method minimizes the demand specification error variance in revealed resistances. China's manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises) 7.6% yearly as China's sales share quadruples over 2000-14. US seller incidence rises 4.1% yearly as US sales share halves. Domestic trade shares closely fit revealed relative resistances with trade elasticity equal to one. Industrial policy pays for itself in suggestive projections. A 10% rise in US 2014 sales share reduces seller incidence 6.0%, exports rise and net benefit is positive.

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Anderson, 2024. "Commercial Rivalry as Seller Incidence Shifting: Non-parametric Accounting of the China Shock," NBER Working Papers 32543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thierry Mayer & Keith Head, 2002. "Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade," Working Papers 2002-01, CEPII research center.
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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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