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(Almost) 200 Years of News-Based Economic Sentiment

Author

Listed:
  • Jules H. van Binsbergen
  • Svetlana Bryzgalova
  • Mayukh Mukhopadhyay
  • Varun Sharma

Abstract

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our measure predicts GDP (both nationally and locally), consumption, and employment growth, even after controlling for commonly-used predictors, as well as monetary policy decisions. Our measure is distinct from the information in expert forecasts and leads its consensus value. Interestingly, news coverage has become increasingly negative across all states in the past half-century.

Suggested Citation

  • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Svetlana Bryzgalova & Mayukh Mukhopadhyay & Varun Sharma, 2024. "(Almost) 200 Years of News-Based Economic Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 32026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32026
    Note: AP CF EFG ME
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Are Things Really that Bad?
      by noreply@blogger.com (Michael Ward) in Managerial Econ on 2024-01-11 17:31:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Manish Jha & Jialin Qian & Michael Weber & Baozhong Yang, 2024. "Harnessing Generative AI for Economic Insights," Papers 2410.03897, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Murach, Michael, 2024. "Macroeconomic Effects from Media Coverage of the China-U.S. Trade War on selected EU Countries," MPRA Paper 121751, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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