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The Neoclassical Growth of China

Author

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  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
  • Lee E. Ohanian
  • Wen Yao

Abstract

This paper studies China's four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China's growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with a parsimonious TFP catch-up process can account for China's growth path and the growth paths of other East Asia economies at a similar stage of development. The growth paths of other East Asia economies and the model predictions suggest that China's growth will substantially slow, so much so that we find the U.S. growth rate will likely be higher than China's by 2043. We also find that China's income per capita will level off at roughly 44% of the U.S. level around 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Lee E. Ohanian & Wen Yao, 2023. "The Neoclassical Growth of China," NBER Working Papers 31351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naughton, Barry J., 2018. "The Chinese Economy: Adaptation and Growth, second edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262534797, April.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2016. "Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China," NBER Working Papers 21872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    4. Herd,Richard, 2020. "Estimating Capital Formation and Capital Stock by Economic Sector in China : The Implications for Productivity Growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9317, The World Bank.
    5. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    6. Karl Whelan, 2002. "A Guide To U.S. Chain Aggregated Nipa Data," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 217-233, June.
    7. Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron P. Smith, 2024. "Econometric Aspects of Convergence: A Survey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 701-721, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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