IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30602.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Ex-Ante Moral Hazard Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines

Author

Listed:
  • Virat Agrawal
  • Neeraj Sood
  • Christopher M. Whaley

Abstract

A long-standing economic question is how protection against harm from insurance or other harm reducing interventions leads to potentially offsetting behavior changes (ex-ante moral hazard). Immunization is a type of insurance, as individuals incur an upfront cost when they get vaccinated, but it protects individuals if they are exposed to a vaccine preventable disease. In this study, we empirically evaluate the ex-ante moral hazard effects of COVID-19 vaccines. First, exploiting the discontinuity in vaccination rates at age 65 due to early eligibility of older population, we compared vaccination rates and risk mitigation behavior between those just above and just below 65 years of age. We find no evidence of decrease in risk mitigating behavior among the 65 years old and older population. Second, leveraging state-level variation in the timing of when people in different age groups became eligible for vaccination, we estimate that COVID-19 vaccination has no effect on risk mitigating behaviors in adult population. Our findings imply minimal moral hazard effects of COVID-19 vaccines in the short-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Virat Agrawal & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2022. "The Ex-Ante Moral Hazard Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines," NBER Working Papers 30602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30602
    Note: AG EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30602.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jay Bhattacharya & Neeraj Sood, 2011. "Who Pays for Obesity?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 139-158, Winter.
    2. Valerio Capraro & Hélène Barcelo, 2020. "The effect of messaging and gender on intentions to wear a face covering to slow down COVID-19 transmission," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 4(S2), pages 45-55, December.
    3. Kosali Simon & Aparna Soni & John Cawley, 2017. "The Impact of Health Insurance on Preventive Care and Health Behaviors: Evidence from the First Two Years of the ACA Medicaid Expansions," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 390-417, March.
    4. Dhaval Dave & Robert Kaestner, 2009. "Health insurance and ex ante moral hazard: evidence from Medicare," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 367-390, December.
    5. Amy Finkelstein & Sarah Taubman & Bill Wright & Mira Bernstein & Jonathan Gruber & Joseph P. Newhouse & Heidi Allen & Katherine Baicker, 2012. "The Oregon Health Insurance Experiment: Evidence from the First Year," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1057-1106.
    6. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    7. David Card & Carlos Dobkin & Nicole Maestas, 2008. "The Impact of Nearly Universal Insurance Coverage on Health Care Utilization: Evidence from Medicare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2242-2258, December.
    8. Ehrlich, Isaac & Becker, Gary S, 1972. "Market Insurance, Self-Insurance, and Self-Protection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(4), pages 623-648, July-Aug..
    9. Jonathan Jay & Jacob Bor & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Sarah K. Lipson & David K. Jones & Sandro Galea & Julia Raifman, 2020. "Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1294-1302, December.
    10. Anup Malani, 2006. "Identifying Placebo Effects with Data from Clinical Trials," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 236-256, April.
    11. Slonim, Robert & Wang, Carmen & Garbarino, Ellen & Merrett, Danielle, 2013. "Opting-in: Participation bias in economic experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 43-70.
    12. Erik Brynjolfsson & John J. Horton & Adam Ozimek & Daniel Rock & Garima Sharma & Hong-Yi TuYe, 2020. "COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data," NBER Working Papers 27344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shanike J. Smart & Solomon W. Polachek, 2024. "COVID-19 vaccine and risk-taking," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 25-49, February.
    2. Erkmen G. Aslim & Wei Fu & Erdal Tekin & Shijun You, 2023. "From Syringes to Dishes: Improving Food Security through Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 31045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Barro, Robert J., 2022. "Vaccination rates and COVID outcomes across U.S. states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Virat Agrawal & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2023. "The Impact of the Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign on All-Cause Mortality," NBER Working Papers 31812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrey Aistov & Ekaterina Aleksandrova & Christopher J. Gerry, 2021. "Voluntary private health insurance, health-related behaviours and health outcomes: evidence from Russia," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(2), pages 281-309, March.
    2. Charles Courtemanche & James Marton & Benjamin Ukert & Aaron Yelowitz & Daniela Zapata, 2018. "Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self‐Assessed Health," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 660-691, January.
    3. Charles Courtemanche & James Marton & Benjamin Ukert & Aaron Yelowitz & Daniela Zapata, 2019. "Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Behaviors After 3 Years," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 7-33, January.
    4. Courtemanche, Charles & Marton, James & Ukert, Benjamin & Yelowitz, Aaron & Zapata, Daniela, 2018. "Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Behaviors after Three Years," IZA Discussion Papers 11468, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Aparna Soni, 2020. "The effects of public health insurance on health behaviors: Evidence from the fifth year of Medicaid expansion," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(12), pages 1586-1605, December.
    6. Abraham Abebe Asfaw, 2019. "The effect of prescription drug insurance on health behavior: Evidence from Medicare Part D," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 403-418, March.
    7. Barbaresco, Silvia & Courtemanche, Charles J. & Qi, Yanling, 2015. "Impacts of the Affordable Care Act dependent coverage provision on health-related outcomes of young adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 54-68.
    8. Chad Cotti & Erik Nesson & Nathan Tefft, 2019. "Impacts of the ACA Medicaid expansion on health behaviors: Evidence from household panel data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 219-244, February.
    9. Lingxiao Wang & Yuqing Zheng & Steven C. Buck, 2021. "How does the affordable care act Medicaid expansion affect cigarette consumption?—The mechanism and heterogeneity," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 763-791, September.
    10. Liu, Yinan & Zai, Xianhua, 2022. "The Benefits of Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services on Health," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1079, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Russ Kashian & Nicholas Lovett & Yuhan Xue, 2020. "Has the affordable care act affected health care efficiency?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 193-233, December.
    12. Chen Chen & Gordon Guoen Liu & Tangxin Wang & Jialong Tan, 2023. "Ex‐ante moral hazard and health insurance: Evidence from China's urban residence basic medical insurance scheme," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 2516-2534, November.
    13. Yörük Barış K., 2017. "Health Insurance Coverage and Risky Health Behaviors among Young Adults," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Marika Cabral & Mark R. Cullen, 2017. "The Effect Of Insurance Coverage On Preventive Care," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1452-1467, July.
    15. Qin, Xuezheng & Pan, Jay & Liu, Gordon G., 2014. "Does participating in health insurance benefit the migrant workers in China? An empirical investigation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 263-278.
    16. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Timothy J. Halliday & Teresa Molina, 2022. "Expanding health insurance for the elderly of the Philippines," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 500-520, April.
    17. Andersen, Martin S., 2018. "Effects of Medicare coverage for the chronically ill on health insurance, utilization, and mortality: Evidence from coverage expansions affecting people with end-stage renal disease," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 75-89.
    18. Liu, Yinan & Zai, Xianhua, 2022. "Does Aging at Home Make Older Adults Healthy: Evidence from Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1079 [rev.], Global Labor Organization (GLO), revised 2022.
    19. Laetitia Lebihan, 2023. "The impact of a mandatory universal drug insurance program on health behaviors and outcomes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(9), pages 2006-2046, September.
    20. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 29593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.