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Market Size and Spatial Growth - Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions

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  • Michael Peters

Abstract

Virtually all theories of economic growth predict a positive relationship between population size and productivity. In this paper I study a particular historical episode to provide direct evidence for the empirical relevance of such scale effects. In the aftermath of the Second World War about 8m ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. This inflow increased the German population by almost 20%. Using variation across counties I show that the settlement of refugees had a large and persistent effect on the size of the local population, manufacturing employment and income per capita. I show that these findings are quantitatively consistent with an idea-based model of spatial growth if population mobility is subject to frictions and productivity spillovers occur locally. The model implies that the refugee settlement increased aggregate income per capita by about 12% after 25 years and that the historical settlement rule triggered persistent industrialization of rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Peters, 2021. "Market Size and Spatial Growth - Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions," NBER Working Papers 29329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29329
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    Cited by:

    1. Eckert, Fabian & Hejlesen, Mads & Walsh, Conor, 2022. "The return to big-city experience: Evidence from refugees in Denmark," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Vanessa Boese-Schlosser & Markus Eberhardt, 2023. "How does democracy cause growth?," Discussion Papers 2023-13, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    3. Berbée, Paul & Braun, Sebastian Till & Franke, Richard, 2022. "Reversing Fortunes of German Regions, 1926-2019: Boon and Bane of Early Industrialization?," EconStor Preprints 250876, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Dalmazzo, Alberto & de Blasio, Guido & Poy, Samuele, 2022. "Can Public Housing Trigger Industrialization?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Doyle, Matthew & Skuterud, Mikal & Worswick, Christopher, 2023. "The economics of Canadian immigration levels," CLEF Working Paper Series 58, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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