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Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment

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  • Gharad T. Bryan
  • Dean Karlan
  • Adam Osman

Abstract

We experimentally study the impact of relatively large enterprise loans in Egypt. Larger loans generate small average impacts, but machine learning using psychometric data reveals that ”top-performers” (those with the highest predicted treatment effects) substantially increase profits, while profits drop for poor-performers. The large differences imply that lender credit allocation decisions matter for aggregate income, yet we find that existing practice leads to substantial misallocation. We argue that some entrepreneurs are over-optimistic and squander the opportunities presented by larger loans by taking on too much risk, and show the promise of allocations based on entrepreneurial type relative to firm characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Gharad T. Bryan & Dean Karlan & Adam Osman, 2021. "Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment," NBER Working Papers 29311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29311
    Note: CF DEV LE LS PR
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    Cited by:

    1. Masselus, Lise & Petrik, Christina & Ankel-Peters, Jörg, 2024. "Lost in the Design Space? Construct Validity in the Microfinance Literature," OSF Preprints nwp8k, Center for Open Science.
    2. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Erika Deserranno & Ricardo Morel & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman & Jack Thiemel, 2022. "Microfinance and Diversification," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(S1), pages 239-275, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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