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Monetary Policy Risk: Rules vs. Discretion

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Listed:
  • David Backus
  • Mikhail Chernov
  • Stanley E. Zin
  • Irina Zviadadze

Abstract

Long-run asset-pricing restrictions in a macro term-structure model identify discretionary monetary policy separately from a policy rule. We find that policy discretion is an important contributor to aggregate risk. In addition, discretionary easing coincides with good news about the macroeconomy in the form of lower inflation, higher output growth, and lower risk premiums on short-term nominal bonds. However, it also coincides with bad news about long-term financial conditions in the form of higher risk premiums on long-term nominal bonds. Shocks to the rule correlate with changes in the yield curve’s level. Shocks to discretion correlate with changes in its slope.

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  • David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E. Zin & Irina Zviadadze, 2021. "Monetary Policy Risk: Rules vs. Discretion," NBER Working Papers 28983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28983
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    Cited by:

    1. Dongho Song, 2017. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2761-2817.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
    3. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Merim KASUMOVIĆ & Mirna MEŠIĆ, 2018. "Macroprudential stability indicators of financial systems: Analysis of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 41-54, Spring.

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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