IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2890.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Engel
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Kenneth A. Froot
  • Anthony P. Rodrigues

Abstract

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in unrestricted ways, given investor preferences. We also allow conditional variances to follow an ARCH process. The data estimate reasonably the coefficient of relative risk aversion, though are unable to reject investor risk neutrality. We reject the restrictions implied by MVE, although changing conditional variances improve statistically upon measured market efficiency. We find that unrestricted asset-share and ARCH models help forecast excess returns. Once MVE is imposed, however, this forecasting ability disappears.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Engel & Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1989. "Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2890
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2890.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    2. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1982. "On the exclusion of assets from tests of the two-parameter model : A sensitivity analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 237-268, November.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    4. Schwert, G. William, 1983. "Size and stock returns, and other empirical regularities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 3-12, June.
    5. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. "Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-220, June.
    6. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    7. Shanken, Jay, 1985. "Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 327-348, September.
    8. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & William T. Dickens, 1983. "Are Asset Demand Functions Determined by CAPM?," NBER Working Papers 1113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-138, April-Jun.
    12. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.
    13. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1986. "A Test of International CAPM," NBER Working Papers 2054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1987. "On multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 341-371, June.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    17. Gibbons, Michael R. & Shanken, Jay, 1987. "Subperiod aggregation and the power of multivariate tests of portfolio efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 389-394, December.
    18. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    20. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
    2. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    4. Chris Brooks & Ólan T. Henry, 2002. "The Impact of News on Measures of Undiversifiable Risk: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 487-507, December.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    7. David Morelli, 2003. "Capital asset pricing model on UK securities using ARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 211-223.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Engel, Charles & Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A. & Rodrigues, Anthony P., 1995. "Tests of conditional mean-variance efficiency of the U.S. stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 3-18, March.
    2. Engel, Charles & Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A. & Rodrigues, Anthony, 1990. "The Constrainted Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method: Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3xh3d7xn, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    4. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market II: asset pricing," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 421-444, September.
    5. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    6. Keith Vorkink & Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton, 2002. "Testing the capital asset pricing model efficiently under elliptical symmetry: a semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 617-639.
    7. Attiya Yasmeen Javid, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE Research Report 2000:3, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    8. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
    9. Ukhov, Andrey D., 2006. "Expanding the frontier one asset at a time," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 194-206, September.
    10. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    11. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Choi, Yoon K., 1995. "The sensitivity in tests of the efficiency of a portfolio and portfolio performance measurement," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-206.
    14. Bob Korkie & Harry J. Turtle, 2002. "A Mean-Variance Analysis of Self-Financing Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(3), pages 427-443, March.
    15. Grauer, Robert R. & Janmaat, Johannus A., 2009. "On the power of cross-sectional and multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 775-787, May.
    16. Shanken, Jay & Weinstein, Mark I., 2006. "Economic forces and the stock market revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 129-144, March.
    17. Attiya Y. Javed, 2000. "Alternative Capital Asset Pricing Models: A Review of Theory and Evidence," PIDE-Working Papers 2000:179, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    18. Charles M. Engel, 1994. "Tests of CAPM on an International Portfolio of Bonds and Stocks," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 149-183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    20. W. Jos Jansen, 1998. "The mean-variance model with capital controls and expectations formation. A test on German portfolio data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 333-346.
    21. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2890. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.